Cassian Baliarsingh

The India Meteorological Department on Monday predicted 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).

Furthermore, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. On the other hand, the LPA of the season rainfall across India as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

As per IMD reports, the moderate EI Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate  model forecasts indicate that the EI Nino condition is likely to weaken further to neutral EI Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season.

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Moreover, at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.