Western disturbance: IMD predicts fresh rainfall, thunderstorm in Odisha; yellow warning for several districts
For the parched Odisha, rain hopes soar as the Bay of Bengal will be hosting three low pressure areas on the trot between Sept 6 - 18. The model forecasts show the likely formation of low pressure areas near north Andhra Pradesh coasts, very close to the south Odisha coast.
If the model forecasts are to be believed, Odisha will record as many as 12 rainy days between Sept 6 - 18, which means spells of rain to lash the State almost daily. The predictions show Bhubaneswar alone will record 95.94mm rain between Sept 6-11.
More so, the APEC Climate Centre in its latest September outlook predicts a good probability of Odisha receiving above-normal rainfall in the months of September and October. And the big hint that has come out is Monsoon 2021 withdrawal from Punjab, Rajasthan may commence either in the last week of September or the first week of October.
But the moot point is will the rainfall be even in drought-hit Odisha?
As per the model forecasts by all leading met institutions like NCEP-GFS, ECMWF and IITM-MME, the first low pressure will form very close to the Srikakulum coasts in Andhra Pradesh on and around September 6.
The system will bring good rainfall to Odisha from the evening of September 6, and will continue till September 8.
As per NOAA-NCEP forecast, coastal Odisha districts like Puri, Jagasinghpur, Kendrapada, Balasore, Bhadrak are predicted to record 100-125 mm rainfall during the week of Sept 2-10. Extremely dry districts like Jajpur and severely dry districts like Keonjhar, Dhenkanal etc are also predicted to receive around 125 mm rainfall. And rest of the districts will record rainfall in the range of 60mm only.
During the succeeding week of 10-18 September, when the coastal districts ranging from Jagatsinghpur to Balasore are predicted to record around 125 mm rainfall, the rest of the State will measure a rainfall of only 70 mm. Western and Central Odisha districts will remain mostly dry.
A look at the model forecasts shows that the drought conditions in Sambalpur, Bargarh and Balangir are unlikely to see any big mitigation.
Heavy Rain on Ganesh Puja
Lead met models predict heavy rainfall in the range of 3-4mm per hour on the festival day of Ganesh Puja (September 10). The rainfall will be widespread and almost cover the whole State. The forecast attributes the rain in Odisha to a low pressure system that will be forming again close to the north Andhra Pradesh coast ( Between Srikakulam- Palasa).
Due to the system, Odisha is predicted to receive a good amount of rainfall till September 15. Rains are forecasted to continue till September 16, following the formation of a low pressure area over central India.
Third Low Pressure In Bay
According to lead met models, a third low-pressure area will form in the Andaman sea and the system will move on to the central bay of Bengal by September 18. The forecast is this evolving system will induce light rainfall in Odisha from September 17.
The extended range forecast predicts the system to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts, especially between Vizag and Jagatsinghpur. The predictions show good rainfall likely in the State till September 18.
Very Heavy Rain In Bhubaneswar
Meanwhile, the NCEP/NOAA model predicts heavy rainfall in Bhubaneswar on September 7. As per the forecast, the Capital City is going to record 2 cm of rainfall per 3 hours. If the forecast is to be believed, the City will receive 95.94 mm rainfall between September 6 - 11. However, nearly half of the rainfall is predicted on September 7.