Various models hint at cyclone; too early to predict intensity, says IMD

A cyclonic circulation will form over South Andaman Sea around May 4 and by May 6, it will develop into a low pressure, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday.

IMD senior scientist, RK Jenamani said it is difficult to predict whether the system will intensify further or not. ‘Probable' cyclone's path and its landfall is unclear even though different models hint at the cyclone, he said.

According to Jenamani, there is consensus over the formation of a low pressure and subsequent intensification by various models. However, there is a lot of difference and variation in the models regarding what will be its path, intensity and where it will make a landfall on.

The prediction system by the IMD is accurate and world-class.

“We are waiting for more information and consensus and until we get concrete data, we don’t make any prediction or forecast,” the IMD scientist said.

According to Jenamani, the IMD so far has only made forecast regarding formation of the low pressure. Usually, the probability of formation of cyclones in the month of May is high.

On prediction by other models that the probable cyclone will make a landfall in Andhra Pradesh or Odisha, Jenamani said “Apart from depending on multi-model ensemble, we extensively rely on experience of our team. We still have time, even though we can predict two weeks in advance. But we do not want to create unnecessary panic among people now.”

Be it Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, these coastal states are capable and they need four to five days in advance to make preparations to deal with cyclones, he added.