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Omicron impact in India is official now. In sync with WHO's 2-3 days doubling time prediction, infections due to the virus of concern had nearly tripled in the country in just 6-days. The Omicron count is 966 today as against 358 on Dec 24.
Omicron Country Scene
On Dec 24, Omicron cases had come from only 17 states. By Dec 30, the variant of concern increased its footprints to 22 states. The new states are Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Ladakh, Manipur and Himachal Pradesh.
The recovery rate on Dec 24 was around 32 per cent. The same has been 33 percent on Dec 30.
Omicron In Odisha
As far as Odisha is concerned, in just 9 days, the new mutant tally grew by 7-times to touch 14 on Dec 30. In a first, an Omicron positive in Odisha had no foreign travel history, but had gone to places like Raipur and Hyderabad.
The recovery rate in Odisha as of Dec 30 stood at 11 percent. A comparison with the national rate shows that nationally the recovery rate between Dec 21-24 (the first case reported on Dec 21) was a high of 32 percent.
This shows the recovery rate in Odisha has been slower so far.
Third Wave Coming?
The country is witnessing a change in the Covid graph. And the uptick is measured in the last 3 days. The concerning fact is after 33-days, the daily caseload in the country has crossed the psychological barrier of the 10k mark. The daily caseload today is over 13k in the country.
Moreover, the daily caseload in more than 11 states/UT, including Delhi is showing an uptick. The states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and a few northeastern states.
Moreover, a surge in cases is being witnessed in the places like Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Mumbai suburban, Nashik, Bengaluru urban, Chennai, Gurugram and Ahmadabad.
Incidentally, these are the places and states that had a history of huge caseload during the devastating second wave.
Odisha Scenario
Time to take notice. In Odisha too, the daily caseload is on the rise since Dec 27. And after a hiatus of 15-long days, the daily confirmed cases remained over 200 for two consecutive days.
Significantly, in tandem with the rise in new confirmed cases in the State, the daily caseload in six districts are on the ascent. They are Balasore, Jharsuguda, Keonjhar, Khordha, Sambalpur and Sundargarh.
Striking a similarity with the national spike trend, the coincidence here is all the six districts have been the State's hotspots during the second wave.
UK Big Hint
As of Dec 29, the total Omicron cases in the country has been over 2.1 lakh. The daily caseload today has been 32,923. The cases in the country grew by nearly 3-times between Dec 20 and 29, exactly at the rate the cases are growing currently in India.
An analysis by the UK Health and Security Agency revealed that Omicron cases now constitute 90 percent of all community Covid-19 cases in England.
The hospitalisation rate in England, the Omicron hotspot, has been only 0.42 percent and the fatality rate is 0.2 percent. As of date, the confirmed cases in England stood at over 1.81 lakh and the number of hospitalisations stood at 766. The Omicron toll has been 53.
The analysis further revealed that hospitalisation among unvaccinated Omicron positive has been only 26 percent.
The above data confirm that while the spread of the new mutant is very fast, the severity and fatality, as of date, has been quite marginal.
The Bottomline
With India exhibiting a similar growth pace in Omicron cases vis-a-vis the UK, it looks certain that the country will be recording a big surge in the New Year. And the Third Wave now looks imminent in the Jan-Feb horizon.
