Little chance of LOPAR turning into depression; IMD model forecasts deficient rainfall in August 3rd, 4th week!

Sea conditions may not permit the system to develop into a depression. IMD numerical model predicts deficient rainfall to the extent of 26 - 45%

Bhubaneswar: Even as a Low Pressure Area (LOPAR) is going to develop over the north west Bay of Bengal (BoB), in proximity to the north Odisha coast, on August 12 (Monday), the sea conditions, however, indicate of the LOPAR system not going to evolve into a depression.

A study of the conditions prevailing in BoB reveals that since the wind velocity is predicted to remain at around 4 knots, the conditions are not conducive for further evolution of the LOPAR into a depression.

As per Skymet predictions, places in north-interior Odisha adjoining Jharkhand, especially Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj and Sundergarh, will be witnessing widespread rainfall in the range of 40-70mm on August 12. The coastal districts from Bhadrak to Gajapati will record  rainfall in the range of 30-40 mm, the predictions added.

The Skymet predictions also speak of Odisha receiving a fair amount of rainfall on Tuesday (August 13). The forecast is districts like Sundergarh, Jharsuguda, Keonjhar, Khurda and Jagatsinghpur will be witnessing  heavy rainfall in the range of 40-70mm. And the rest of the State will be receiving rainfall of below 40mm.

While the local met office here has also predicted fair amount of rainfall in the 2nd week of August following the LOPAR, the IMD’s numerical model, though, predicts normal precipitation in the State in the 2nd week of August( 9 – 15), the worrying prediction it made is 3rd and 4th week of August will be witnessing highly deficient rainfall in Odisha.

It is noteworthy to mention that Odisha had seen good rainfall during the first week of August. IMD data shows the State recording 13 per cent more rainfall in the first week of August.

However, if one believes the IMD’s numerical model, the 2nd week of August (9-15) in Odisha will be recording normal rainfall of around 57mm. The disconcerting forecast is Odisha will be recording rainfall departure to the extent of -45 per cent in the third week of August and -26 per cent in the 4th week (23-29) of August.

Though the numerical model carries an error value, the fact is the same model has predicted normal rainfall in the State in the first week of August. And the actual rainfall shows 13 per cent excess precipitation in Odisha.

The good news, however, is the IMD model has predicted normal rainfall in Odisha in the first week of September.