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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: Seemingly a big relief for Odisha. The 'Bulbul' will not come for nest-searching in the State.

Almost all lead Met agencies world over has made the forecast of relief for the State. There is now apparently unanimity in the Met community that the tropical cyclone Bulbul will not make land fall in Odisha.

And the big reason behind is the vertical wind shear (VWS) in the western periphery of the system has turned unfavourable. As per the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy), the VWS has now risen to 20-25 knots in the western periphery of the system. For which, it changes it track from west-northwest to north-northwest, and will veer towards Bangladesh coasts.

The system is now 997 km from Chittagong, Bangladesh.

As per the model forecasts across the globe, some north coastal districts in Odisha, especially Balasore and its adjoining places in other districts will receive significant precipitation.

The US based Global Forecast System predicts that the intensified system will move towards Bangladesh, but will not make landfall. After drifting towards northeast it will weaken gradually.

The GFS forecast adds that another Low Pressure Area will form in South Bay of Bengal by November 17 and will move towards Tamil Nadu Coasts between Nov 22 and 26.

However, the prediction of ECWMF (European centre weather forecast) is the intensified system will cross northern Andhra Pradesh on Nov 12. This model forecast also shows Odisha no where a destination on 'Bulbul's' path.

When the Canada Meteorology Centre's forecast is Bulbul will make landfall in Bangladesh on November 10, the Japan Meteorology Centre's forecast mentions that the intensified system will go close to Bangladesh and may weaken gradually.

The prediction made by NAVGEM (UK) is Bulbul cyclone will be of a bigger intensity. It's prediction is it will move towards Odisha coast. But landfall destination is not Odisha.

However, the forecast of ICON (Brazil) is the tropical cyclone Bulbul will make landfall in Bangalesh.

And like US-based GFS, another lead weather forecaster StormSurf's prediction reveals that the tropical cyclone will move towards Bangladesh, and will gradually weaken before landfall.

Meanwhile, speaking to media persons, SRC PK Jena informed that the IMD weather analysis shows the cyclone will skip Odisha.  "As of now, the Agriculture Department has alerted all farmers in 15 districts to harvest matured paddy and stock them in safe places or cover polythene sheets. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea from evening of November 7," he added.

Releasing a situational chart of the tropical cyclone, Jena said the system will be at a distance of 170 km from Astarang (Puri District) on Nov 9, 160 Km from Paradip on Nov 10 and 140 km from Dhamra on Nov 11. He added that the cyclone is expected to make landfall between Nov 10 & 11.

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