2 Cyclonic Systems Likely In BoB in Mid-Oct: Will Odisha Stay Safe?

Odisha received bumper rains in September this year. Since Independence (1947), this September had been the third ever wettest in State's weather history. After 2011 and 2007, September 2021 had seen the heaviest ever downpour in State's SW monsoon history.

In the year 2011, Odisha had recorded over 420 mm of rainfall in September,  whereas in September 2007 it had measured rainfall of 408.7mm. And in 2021, the cumulative rainfall measured stood at 384.8 mm.

Though in the wettest ever September years, the State didn't face any cyclone fury in October. So, will it be a lucky third time?

Monsoon To Exit From Odisha?  

A study of the leading Met models shows that Odisha will be receiving some amount of rainfall at many places on October 3, 4 and 6. As per the NCEP model, the State during Oct 1-9 will receive a total rainfall in the range of 20-60 mm - means coastal and parts of central and western regions (altogether around 26 districts) will record rainfall of around 25mm, whereas the remaining 4 districts in southern and western, including Sundargarh, may record rain in the range of 50 mm.

Since the State will be recording no deficient rainfall during the period of Oct 1-9, the monsoon will be remaining little active in the State till Oct 10. However, rainfall will be scanty in Odisha, after Oct 10.

The normal withdrawal date of monsoon from Odisha has been between Oct 10-15. However, in case the Bay of Bengal throws out some system, then the withdrawal lingers over till the system peters out.   

BoB In Second Week Of Oct   

As per NCEP, Odisha is predicted to record 125-150mm rainfall during the week of Oct 9 - 17. District-wise data shows, rainfall of 125-150 mm is predicted for the coastal regions in the State, whereas the rest of the districts will be recording rainfall in the range of around 25 mm.

The above rainfall forecast shows, the exit of the monsoon from Odisha is not possible till Oct 17. Such a delayed presence in Odisha does hint at any system in BoB?

Stormy October?

If the model forecasts are to be believed, then mid-October will be going to be stormy for the country. The Bay of Bengal is predicted to conceive two back to back low pressure systems - one in the south BoB and the other in the south-central BoB or near Andaman seas.

While the south BoB LPS will move towards Kerala, and then merge into the Arabian seas, only to gather steam and intensify into a deep depression or even a cyclone in the Arabian sea by around Oct 8-10. And the forecasts by IITM-MME, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF predict that the intensified system will either move towards Oman or Yemen.

The Second LPS In Bay

As per IITM-MME's extended-range forecast, there is a nearly 40 percent probability of a low pressure system taking shape over the central BoB or in the north Andaman sea on and around Oct 16-17.

The ECMWF predicts a low-level cyclonic circulation in south-central BoB close to the Andaman seas. It predicts the system later intensifying into a low pressure system.

The NCEP-GFS forecast shows the developed system intensifying into a cyclone by Oct 16, and the system tracking a northwest direction. A detailed glance at the forecast reveals that the intensified system may cross the coast between Srikakulam (Andhra Pradesh) and Gopalpur (Odisha) coast on and around Oct 17. So will it be Phailin Redux?

Given that the three lead models bet high on cyclonic turbulence in BoB from October 8-17, only time will verify their model forecasts.