Vikash Sharma

 With several parts across the country reeling under intense heat wave conditions, the news that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal has provided much needed relief.

While releasing the long range forecast for rainfall during Southwest Monsoon Season 2022, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said that the seasonal rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA).

“Currently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The La Niña conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season,” said IMD.

At present, neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. As per IMD, the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of southwest monsoon season. Thereafter, enhanced probability for negative IOD condition is predicted.

During the southwest monsoon season (June-September), India receives about 868.6 mm rainfall which is about 75 percent of the annual rainfall (1160.1mm). Out of twelve months, July receives maximum rainfall of 280.4 mm followed by August (254.9mm).

In premonsoon season (March-May) northeastern India receive highest rainfall followed by Kerala in the range of 350-758mm. The normal rainfall for the Southwest monsoon season is highest over Assam and Meghalaya followed by western coastal subdivisions with value more than 1600mm.

As sea surface temperature conditions over the pacific and the Indian Ocean are known to have strong influence on the monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins. The update forecast for monsoon seasonal rainfall will be issued in the last week of May 2022.