Omicron Not Endgame, More Fit Variant Will Emerge: Know Why WHO Says So

Even as the tail of Omicron-led third wave is up in the country, including Odisha, the head of COVID-19 technical team in WHO and a renowned infectious disease epidemiologist in the US Maria Van Kerkhove has warned of a 'more fit' variant than Omicron in days to come.

She said, "Omicron will not be the last variant you will hear us talking about. The next variant of concern will be more fit and what we mean by that is it will be more transmissible because it will have to overtake what is currently circulating. The other thing we expect with the variant is they may be more immune escape - which means our countermeasures like our vaccines will be less effective"

Maria further added, "The big question is whether or not future variants will be more or less severe."

Why WHO Think So?

As per WHO COVID-19 Technical Head, variants are the wild card. To date, there is no absolute knowledge about the behaviour of this virus, the variants and the future trajectory thereof.

"All we know about is what works against the unpredictable virus - the vaccines, physical distancing, masking, hand hygiene and respiratory etiquettes," said Maria.

Moreover, as per Dr Maria Kerkhova, SARS-CoV2 is a respiratory pathogen, therefore seasonal outbreak is possible. Studies show most viral respiratory infections tend to follow seasonal patterns with high incidence during winter in temperate regions and during the rainy season in tropical regions.

Moreover, the studies further added that these viruses peak from December to March in the Northern hemisphere, and between June and August in the Southern hemisphere. India lies in the northern hemisphere.

Significantly, the second wave in India peaked in April and the third wave peaked in January. Though the first wave peaked in September, the delay had been attributed to the long strict lockdown clamped from March to June 2020.

All Wild Cards Out?

Since the first case of the Wuhan virus, the world has seen a total of 28 variants to date. Given that respiratory pathogens have the mutation affinity trait, WHO is not ready to call Omicron the endgame of Covid-19.

In India alone, along with the Delta variant of concern, three lineages of the Delta variant were traced. WHO has put them as Variants Under Monitoring (VUM).

Now, take a glance at the WHO data on Variants of Concern (VoC), Variants of Interest (VoI) and Variants Under Monitoring (VUM) and De-escalated variants (means the variants are no longer in circulation or have no impact even remaining in circulation for a long time. Also, they don't have any unique properties).

Variants Of Concern List

Variants Of Concern

Variants Of Interest List

Variant Of Interest

Variant Under Monitoring List

Variants Under Monitoring

De-escalated Variants List

De-escalated Variants

De-escalated variant

De-escalated Variant List

Target Of Next Variant?

As per WHO, the variant will infect the unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and individuals who exhibit wane in vaccine-induced immunity after a certain period.

The Remedy

The sure shot remedy, as per WHO, is to reduce transmission of the respiratory virus. The more they spread, the higher the chance of mutation and the emergence of new variants.

As Omicron has travelled from South Africa to India and the whole of the globe, the vaccination status in the African continent as of Feb 7, 2022, is very poor. Fully vaccinated population ranges from below 1 percent to 7 percent. Nigeria already has VUM.

Moreover, since WHO warned that individuals with waning vaccine-induced immunity are prone to variant attack, a changed lifestyle is the need of the hour, opined Maria Van Kerkhova.