Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: For Odisha, the cyclonic storm Fani it seems will bring pounding rain than wrecking devastation. The latest model update by Indian National Centre of Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) indicate the cyclonic system Fani kissing the Odisha coast and leaving towards Bangladesh by May 4.

However, the Indian Metrological Department in its latest afternoon bulletin maintained that the Cyclonic storm Fani lay centered at southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and east Equatorial Indian Ocean, around 1,440Km from Macchlipatnam. The IMD release has indicated the system to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by April 29 and reach near the north Tamil Nadu coast and south Andhra coast. And Odisha till April 30 will not see any adverse cyclonic impact.

Private weatherman SkyMet has maintained the INCOIS prediction. Skymet too said Cyclone Fani will skirt the entire east coast of India, right from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal, post intensification to severe cyclonic storm by Sunday night. The organisation indicated that post becoming severe cyclonic storm, Fani will become the second such severe storm in BoB since 1891, after cyclone Mala. Cyclone Mala was formed on April 25, 2006 and had made landfall in Myanmar.

According to INCOIS latest bulletin, till April 30 the impact of Cyclone Fani will be restricted to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh, when it will be near the TN - AP coast. However, neither IMD nor INCOIS model predict Fani to make landfall in TN or AP.

Rather, the INCOIS model suggest it taking a recurve after travelling northwestwards till April 30. The wind pattern suggested by the model didn’t predict landfall in Odisha or West Bengal, as of now.

But what looks certain now is Odisha would likely to witness heavy rainfall along the coastal areas from May 2 onwards. The sea would also remain rough and wind speed could roaring around 100 km/hr during the dates.

Favourable conditions in BoB seems laying the red carpet for Fani to move towards Bangladesh. An analysis reveals the sea surface temperature of  Bay of Bengal (BoB) along the south Odisha coast is now hovering at over 30 – 31 degree Celsius.

The fact needs to be mentioned here is sea surface temperature of BoB gets heated up during pre-monsoon (April-May) and post Monsoon (September – October). The direction of winds in the BoB is around 85 –90 degrees from north, which means they are nearly vertical. And vertical winds play an important role in sustaining a cyclonic storm and influence its movement too. And, the low vertical wind shear seems guiding Fani towards Bangladesh.