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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: In tandem with the national trend, Odisha has also been displaying a higher rate of transmission in the second wave of Covid-19 vis-a-vis the first wave. What seems nagging here is will Odisha mirror the national trend in toll rate to record the Covid-19 fatalities from April end or May?

MEASURE THE INFECTIOUSNESS

First Wave in India: In the first wave, the daily new positives took nearly 52 days to clock the 90k-plus count. The daily Covid-19 cases breached the 30k -mark in mid-July 2020. And the country crossed the 90k-mark towards the end of the first week of September.

Second Wave in India: The infectious graph of the second wave looks quite staggering. The nation clocked the 30k to 90k mark within in mere 18-days. This time around the country clocked the 30-k mark in mid-March (around Mar 17), but crossed the 90k figure on April 3.

FATALITY RATE

Though earlier many corona watchers were of the opinion that the second wave is less fatal than the first wave, however, the data from the last three days compelled all to do a rethink. Sample the details below.

First Wave In India: During the first wave, the country took nearly 22 days to record around 500 deaths per day. The country recorded over 300 deaths per day first on June 22, 2020. But the country witnessed a fatality rate of 500 per day right from mid-July (13th) 2020.

Second Wave in India: Discounting the notion that the second wave is less fatal, the country took mere 8-days to clock around 500 deaths per day. Only on March 27, the country recorded over 300 deaths, by April 3, the toll crossed the 500-mark per day (514 deaths on April 3).

THE ODISHA SCENARIO

First Wave in Odisha: During the first wave, the State notched the count of 200 new cases per day on June 25. It took 14-days to breach the 400-mark on July 8.

Second Wave in Odisha: How high the contagious graph in this current coronavirus wave is evident from the fact that the State clocked the distance of 200 to 400-mark in just 7-days. On March 25, the State counted 214 new positives. But on April 1, the daily positive count in the State breached the 400-mark (461 new cases).

The super-speed the State took to clock 400-cases per day only confirms the fact that  Odisha is in the grip of a second corona wave.

EPIDEMIOLOGISTS TAKE

As per senior NRHM epidemiologists in the State, Odisha is witnessing the July phase of coronavirus first wave now. So what will be the impact on the fatality rate in the State?

FATALITY RATE IN ODISHA

First Wave in Odisha: In the first wave, the State had recorded only 32 deaths till June 30, with the month having recorded mere 23 deaths in 30-days. But in July, Odisha recorded a whopping 181 deaths at the rate of around 3 per day.

“Odisha has now entered the phase equivalent to the July period of the first wave. The toll increased during July in the first wave. Moreover, of late, the national trend shows a faster rise in the toll count. Therefore, the month of April is crucial and the State need to maintain close surveillance so as to provide early treatment in critical cases to keep the fatality rate under check,” opined a senior NRHM epidemiologist.

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