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Bhubaneswar: The signs of an explosive second coronavirus wave in Odisha became all the more conspicuous on Thursday when the daily tally of new infections was just a few shots below the 3k-mark (2,989).
Though experts term the current spread in Odisha as the pre-peak phase, they are of the opinion that the intermittent sudden spikes in daily infections indicate the coming of a bigger peak very soon.
The moot point then:
- Is the transmission of the virus in Odisha brisk?
- Is the peak going to be bigger this time?
- Is the peak-time nearing?
ODISHA EPIDEMIC CURVE SHOWS BRISK TRANSMISSION
The epidemic curve (Epi-Curve) of State for the last 14-days period (the quarantine period) of Covid-19 indicates the coming off of a bigger peak in Odisha.
In the first week of April, the gap between the 7-days rolling average and the count on April 8 had been estimated at 303. On the contrary, during the succeeding week (April 9-15), the gap between the 7-days rolling average and new infections on April 15 has been estimated at 1,586, which has grown nearly 3-times that of April 8 value.
The data for the full quarantine period shows that the daily peaks are broken every day, which means cases in one peak becoming sources of subsequent daily peaks in Odisha – which point to the intensive transmission of the virus from person to person in the State. There is no break observed in the transmission cycle during the 14-day quarantine period (see the image below).
In such uncontrolled transmission, as per WHO and US-based CDC, the peak number could turn explosive.
HOW EXPLOSIVE THE PEAK WILL BE IN ODISHA?
Data gives the worst nightmares to all. During the last 14-day quarantine phase in April, the average rate of growth of new infections in Odisha hints at a very tense future.
While in the first 7-days of April, the average rate of growth in daily new infections had been 16 per cent, the same in the second week inched up to over 20 per cent.
With the Epi-curve showing presence of brisk transmission in Odisha, and in the given state of transmission if the current rate of growth continues, then the daily infections in the State may jump to over 10k per day in the last week of April.
HOW SECOND WAVE DIFFERENT FROM FIRST?
Contrast the Daily Positive Rate (DPR).
AUGUST 26, 2020: The State tested a whopping 63,209 samples. The new positives on the day were 3,371. The DPR had been 5.3 per cent.
APRIL 15, 2021: Odisha tested mere 34, 571 samples. The new infections recorded stood at 2,989. The DPR has jumped to a high of 8.6 per cent.
THE BIG ALERT: The DPR in Odisha today during the second wave has crossed the DPR of around 8.1-8.5 per cent during the peak of first wave.
IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY: With the DPR in pre-peak having already crossed the peak of first wave, the second wave in Odisha is heading towards a bigger peak during April 27-May 7.
