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In an analysis, Domestic Export and Marketing Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) in TNAU said that BT cotton (long staple) varieties sown during Aug-Sept last and arriving in the market will fetch a price of Rs 3,900 to Rs 4,200 for the next three months.
If China, a major procurer of Indian cotton, stops buying, the prices are expected to decline and so farmers can sell their cotton upon harvest, it said.
Cotton export from India, the world`s second largest producer, was expected to increase to 14 per cent this year to 80 lakh bales and so far 46 lakh bales have been exported and by March it was expected to be 55 to 60 lakh bales, the cell said.
Inspite of higher productivity, declined domestic intake and power cuts, and declining cotton seed prices, factor like China`s procurement and strengthening of Dollar give hopes of prices to remain stable.
International cotton prices have steadied in January, after witnessing a decline for almost 10 months and the main reason behind the stabilisation was the Chinese purchase, it said.
As for the Long Staple cotton, sown in Feb-March (Masipattam), the prices would be around Rs 4,300 to Rs 4,600 per quintal in June-Sept and farmers are recommended to take up cotton sowing.
Masipattam is a special season in Tamil Nadu and Surabhi variety was cultivated mostly in this season. Demic analysed 15 years of cotton prices that prevailed in Avanashi and Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and arrived at the prices.
Tamil Nadu, being the major consumer of cotton, 47 per cent of total India production, with 2,000 textiles mills, not even produce five lakh bales, with an area of 1.22 lakh hectare.
