With the monsoon staying weak in the Andaman seas and elsewhere in Bay of Bengal, no low pressure system in the bay for the next 120 hours. But the South West Monsoon is predicted to regain its mojo around Oct 9-10.
As per model forecasts, a low pressure system will form close to Andhra Pradesh coasts on and around October 9. Given that monsoon mojo will be back in Bay of Bengal and Andaman seas by the time, instead of moving towards land, the LPS will persist in the bay for the next 120 hrs, only to re-emerge in the Andaman seas on Oct 14.
Since the biggest festival of the year - the scared 4-day Durga Puja - is starting in Odisha from on Oct 11, the moot point is will the weather going to play a tango to the Covid-19 clampdown on the puja celebrations in the State.
Rain Or Shine In Puja
As per forecasts by lead models like IITM-MME, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF, after SW Monsoon getting active in Andaman sea, two back to back low pressure systems are going to develop over the Andaman seas.
While ECMWF and IITN-MME show heavy rains in Odisha on and around Oct 16-20, the NCEP-GFS predict heavy rains in the State from October 14.
A detailed look at the models shows depression is predicted to hit between the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha between 14-18. In consequent to the system, very heavy rains are predicted to lash the coastal districts of Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada and the southern districts of Gajapati and Rayagada.
Second Low Pressure Around Sharad Or Kumar Purnima
A second Low pressure system will form in the Andaman seas on and around Oct 16, and it is predicted to intensify to a depression in the next 72 hours. Does there any threat to Odisha?
A study of weather charts shows by Oct 18, an anticyclone zone would be persisting over the State extending from Kalahandi to Bhadrak district. The anticyclone zone will prevent the LPS to move towards the Odisha coasts.
Model forecasts show the intensified system moving towards the coast of East Godavari district in Andhra Pradesh on and around October 20-21. The forecasts predict rains in the south and south coastal districts in Odisha.
Monsoon Withdrawal
Even though Odisha is unlikely to witness any rainfall from October 10, the two systems will bring rains to State till October 20-21. However, the withdrawal of SW monsoon from western Odisha is likely to be on and around Oct 17-18, the model charts suggest.