Odisha has recorded the peak in the daily count of positive cases in May. But with the deaths in the State maintaining a rising trend, is the death count in the State heading towards its peak?
The first week of the month indicates so. And the big trend it's dropping is Odisha moving towards a bigger death peak than the May count. The numbers tell the grim tale. In the first 8-days of June, a high of 327 have succumbed to the disease. The total toll so far in June has been nearly 46 per cent of the deaths in the whole of May. At the current rate of growth of 1.4 per cent, the toll count in June may touch the 4-digit mark.
Death Peak In First Wave
The data from the first wave reveals that Odisha, though has recorded the peak in daily positive cases on September 26, 2020, witnessed the peak in deaths in the month of October. The downslide started only in November.
As per data with the State Health Department, when September (peak month in 2020) recorded 372 deaths, October and November had recorded 478 and 419 deaths, respectively.
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Second Wave Trend
Echoing the trend of the first wave, the deaths in the State are moving towards the peak in the State, observed experts.
"The deaths in Covid-19 usually carry a two-week lag. This is the reason why Covid-19 fatalities peak in the month following the peak month of daily positives," explained a high-ranking official in the State health department and he further added that in the month of May, the State was recording fatalities from the severe cases of April. This is the reason, why May witnessed lesser fatalities, he explained.
The fatalities in June are on the rise because deaths reported now actually are the severe cases recorded during the peak month of May. The ICU capacity is still high at 64 per cent. Over 1200 patients are in need of intensive care at present. Moreover, over 450 patients are now requiring ventilator support, which means they need machine support to breathe life. Case studies reveal that the mortality rate of patients on a ventilator is at around 40-50 per cent, explained the high-ranking official.
He, however, added that since last week the inflow of severe or acute cases in the State has recorded a marked decline which will only be reflected in the toll chart by June end.
"A fall in the Covid-19 mortalities in the State will only be witnessed from June last week," the senior official claimed.
Odisha In Country's Toll Map
The high rate of deaths in June has catapulted the State to the top states having a higher number of fatalities every day in June. The chart nationally is led by Tamil Nadu and is followed by Maharashtra and West Bengal.
Since all states have witnessed the peak in the month of April last and May first week, their fatality rates are on the downswing. Only West Bengal and Odisha are showing a rising trend in mortalities. Incidentally, both states reached their daily peak in the last week of May.