BJD MLA suspensions spark speculation over Rajya Sabha election strategy

Discussions have intensified over the suspension of two BJD MLAs - Arvind Mohapatra and Sanatan Mahakud, with the Rajya Sabha election arithmetic being cited as the primary reason behind the move. The action has triggered wide speculation about the political calculations shaping the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls in Odisha.

At the heart of the debate is whether the suspension was aimed at preventing possible cross-voting to ensure the smooth passage of Sujata Karthikeyan to the Rajya Sabha, or whether it was intended to counter a new political equation emerging for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat. Questions are also being raised about whether BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik is wary of a repeat of the 2002 Rajya Sabha election scenario, when an unexpected outcome altered the party’s plans.

Four Rajya Sabha seats from Odisha are set to fall vacant by the end of March. Of these, the BJP has the numerical strength to secure two seats, while the BJD can comfortably win one. No party, however, has the numbers to claim the fourth seat outright. Sources suggest that Sujata Karthikeyan may be fielded for the third seat, and it is being alleged that the disciplinary action against MLAs Arvind Mohapatra, Sanatan Mahakud was taken with this calculation in mind. There is also speculation that the move was meant to send a strong message to leaders perceived to be opposed to VK Pandian, amid fears of cross-voting during the election.

Meanwhile, PCC president Bhakta Charan Das and former BJD leader Shreemayee Mishra have alleged that a 'deal' is behind the suspensions. Bhakta claimed that the BJD has effectively handed over the two MLAs to the BJP.

"BJP and BJD will do whatever they like. Two MLAs were handed over to BJP. Before the Rajya Sabha election, many more MLAs will be handed over in the next two months. The surplus votes will be destroyed to favour BJP and it seems very clear," said PCC president Bhakta Charan Das.

These allegations, however, have been rejected by BJD MLA Pradip Dishari, who dismissed claims of any political understanding behind the action.

Also Read: Bijoy Mohapatra alleges conspiracy behind son Arvind’s suspension from BJD

If a whip will be imposed on the Rajya Sabha election and the party will take certain decisions, the MLAs of the party will be abided by it. If anyone takes it otherwise, I will not accept it," said BJD MLA Pradip Dishari.

The most significant point of discussion now revolves around the possible emergence of a new political alignment for the fourth Rajya Sabha seat. It has been speculated that a political personality who maintains cordial relations with MLAs across three parties and is currently not affiliated with any party could be in the race. This has drawn comparisons with the 2002 Rajya Sabha election, when Dilip Ray, despite being expelled from the BJD after filing his nomination as an Independent, managed to win a seat through strategic political manoeuvring by Bijoy Mohapatra.

Recent sightings of Bijoy Mohapatra meeting Mohammed Moquim and attending Dilip Ray’s birthday celebration have further fuelled speculation about behind-the-scenes calculations for the fourth seat. However, Bijoy Mohapatra has denied any such political role or intent.

"Notification about the Rajya Sabha election is yet to be notified. Why will there be a discussion about it? There will be political enmity and friendship. Dilip Ray is in the BJP, and the decision will be taken by him and his party. He has come to me so many times, like many other leaders," said Bijoy Mohapatra.

"Naveen doubted that an incident like 2002 might take place this time. At that time, Dilip Ray had filed his nomination independently. As many as 14 BJD MLAs had voted in favour of Dilip Ray through strategic political manoeuvring by Bijoy Mohapatra. The situation is more or less like it this time," said political analyst Akshay Sahoo.

Amid these developments, the suspension of the two BJD MLAs is being closely watched, as it may offer crucial signals about the party’s strategy and the evolving equation ahead of the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections.