BJD+Cong Vs BJP: Unthinkable? Think Again

By Sandeep Sahu

BJD and Congress on the same boat! Unthinkable? Not really, if what Bhartruhari Mahatab, leader of the BJD parliamentary party said on Wednesday is anything to go by. The Congress is ‘not what it was’ and there is no big problem being in a group that also includes it, the Cuttack MP said.

Mahatab was responding to talk of a possible Maha Gathbandhan the idea for which has been floated by beleaguered Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav who, ironically, is fighting a desperate battle to keep his own crumbling house intact in the run up to the all-important UP elections early next year. But a statement of such import could not have been made off-the-cuff or without the sanction of the party supremo.

So how does one interpret this statement of intention made by a senior leader of the BJD? Is it just testing the waters or is there something more to it? Will the ruling party in Odisha really go the whole hog and be part of an anti-BJP front that also has the Congress in it or will it ditch the ship midway like it did in the run up to the last parliamentary elections? What could be the possible calculation behind even toying with the idea of being on the same side as the party which has been the BJD’s principal rival (if it can be called that after its disastrous performance in Odisha in the recent past) in the state not so long ago.

While the answers to these questions lie in the future, Mahatab’s statement makes two things crystal clear. First, the BJD does not consider the Congress its main rival in the state anymore. It obviously believes that the oldest party has now been too weakened to mount a serious challenge to it. It also suggests that the ruling party is convinced a turnaround in the Congress party’s fortune is unlikely any time soon. With the Congress locked in a fratricidal war at the moment, such an assessment appears based on sound reading of the ground realities.

The second inference that can be drawn from the BJD’s willingness to do business with the Congress, which actually is an offshoot of the first, is that the BJD now considers the BJP its main rival in the state. With the honeymoon between the two estranged partners that marked the initial few months of the Narendra Modi government now well and truly over, Naveen and his party are back to their all-too-familiar war cry of ‘Central neglect’ that has paid it rich electoral dividends in the past. But this time round, there is a difference. Unlike the friendly banter that marked its relationship with the UPA government, there is a certain vengeance to the BJD’s attacks against the BJP led government at the Centre, not least on the emotive issues of Mahanadi and Polavaram.

If there is one incident that marked a decisive shift in the equations between the two erstwhile partners, it has to be the orchestrated attack on Union minister Santosh Gangwar in Bargarh this summer. From then on, the relationship has gone steadily downhill to almost reach a point of no return.

While the BJP did not win too many seats in the last elections – just one out of 21 in Lok Sabha and 10 out of 147 in the Assembly - what could not have missed the attention of the BJD strategists is the substantial rise in its vote share compared to the last general elections in 2009: up from about 15% to 18% in the Lok Sabha elections and from 16.89% to 21.5% in the Assembl polls. In sharp contrast, the Congress vote share went downhill from 32.75% to 26% in Lok Sabha and from 29.10% to 25.7% in the Assembly.

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True, a lot has changed since April, 2014 when the last elections were held, but nothing that suggests that the Congress is on the comeback path. Instead, the party looks split down the middle as the concerted effort to oust PCC chief Prasad Harichandan shows.

With talk of a few disgruntled BJD leaders warming up to the BJP, the saffron party could well be in a much better position than the Congress to mount a semblance of challenge to the BJD juggernaut in 2019. The BJD’s waving of the white flag to Congress suggests the acceptance of this ground reality.

As things today, it is difficult to see the BJD actually tying up with the Congress for the next Assembly elections. Imagining Naveen Patnaik sharing stage with Prasad Harichandan (or whoever is heading the Congress at the time of the next election) or a seat sharing arrangement between the two is a bit of a stretch. The most one can think of is a 'friendly fight' or some kind of a tactical understanding aimed at checkmating the BJP.