Even as only 96 hours are left for the low pressure to take shape in the hotter Bay of Bengal, Met models world over are seem divided today over the likely track of the season’s first cyclone in Bay of Bengal .
But the weather models are almost unanimous over the severity of the ‘Cyclone Yaas'.
Almost all the models estimate the central pressure of the system to fall to around 970 millibars – which means the likely cyclone will have the intensity of Cyclone Titli that wrecked havoc in Odisha after making landfall at Palasa( Andhra Pradesh) in 2018.
As per the estimated central pressure and wind speed by all models, it seems certain that the developing Cyclone Yaas will be in the category of very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS).
Now sample the model predictions.
INCOIS: Recently, Secretary MOES, M Rajeevanhas recently praised the ace ocean research institute of India for helping IMD in making the correct prediction about Cyclone Tauktae.
As per the model of this top institute, the probable cyclone ‘Yaas’ will make landfall between Odisha’s Balasore and West Bengal’s Digha. ( Watch the image given below).
ECMWF: The world’s most credible Cyclone forecaster agency bets big on the track predicted by India’s INCOIS.
The latest forecast shows the cyclonic system will make landfall in and around Balasore on May 27.
US-GFS: The world’s 2nd most reputed model predicts a different course. It said the system will take a hit at Bangladesh on May 28-29.
ICON: This numerical model of German Weather Service while estimating the likely cyclone as very severe category, predicts that the system will hit West Bengal, close to Odisha border.
CMC: The Canada Met Centre forecast puts the landfall place at close to Balasore. And it says system to make landfall at around midnight of May 28.
How Much Will Be The Wind Speed?
A look at the various models show that the wind speed will remain in the range of 140-150kmph with the gusting speed touching around 195kmph.
More so, the entire coastal stretch of Odisha from Puri to Balasore will witness heavy rain along with a windy days from nearly 24 hours before the landfall. (May 25).
Who Will Be Spared?
A study of the models show the Cyclone Yaas will have little impact on south coastal Odisha. The system’s place of genesis and it’s track drop clear hints about South coastal Odisha remaining out of Yaas’ radar.