Bhubaneswar: With the monsoon rains all set to drench Kerala in next 72 hours, will Odisha also witness early monsoon rains very soon? Moreover, when the final prediction by IMD make a forecast of normal monsoon rains in the country this year, how the monsoon rainfall will pan out in Odisha this year?
As per the model forecasts, Odisha is unlikely to witness onset of monsoon on its normal date of June 10, though some models like India's CGEPS (MME) and US-GFS make a forecast of pre-monsoon rains starting from June 9 in Odisha.
MONSOON ONSET FORECAST FOR ODISHA
The model forecasts show presence of warm air mass over Odisha till June 8 which rules out possibility of any rainfall in the State in the first week of June. However, the weather conditions will take a change from June 9, and favourable conditions for the onset of monsoon manifest. If the forecasts are to be believed then onset of monsoon in Odisha will take place on June 12-13.
But the monsoon rainfall will pick up in the State from June 17, the model outlook for the month of June reveals. And all weather forecast agencies like IMD, Asia Pacific Climate Centre (APEC) and US-GFS indicate of above normal rainfall in the month of June.
MONSOON 2021 ODISHA FULL FORECAST
As per the IMD forecast released today, which details the probability of monsoon rainfall during the current season of June to September, there is a 40 per cent probability of Odisha receiving above normal in many districts of the State.
Significantly, the Asia Pacific Climate Centre's monsoon outlook also shows a higher probability (40%) of Odisha receiving above normal rainfall during the period of June to August. But the district-wise outlook reveals a very mixed forecast. There is the prediction of deficient rainfall for the western parts of the State.
MONTH WISE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
JULY 2021: The rainfall outlook for the month in Odisha doesn't carry a cheerful forecast. The forecast makes no prediction of above normal rain fall in the State in the month of July. Moreover, there is a probability of deficient to normal rainfall during the month.
AUGUST 2021: Like July, State is predicted to record deficient to normal rainfall during this important monsoon month of 2021.
It needs mentioning here that IMD today has predicted rainfall probability in Odisha for the month of June only.
SEPTEMBER 2021: The APEC rainfall outlook for the month shows a pick-up in rainfall activities in the State during the month. There seems possibility of depression led rain in the State during the month.
WILL ODISHA WITNESS ANY CYCLONEGENSIS IN OCT-NOV?
While predicting that sea surface temperature in Bay of Bengal to remain above normal in September and October, the rainfall outlook predict above normal rainfall activities in the month of October. The district wise rainfall forecast for the month indicates at above normal rainfall in the Odisha districts adjoining to the state of Andhra Pradesh.
An analysis of the outlook shows good probability of depression induced rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining districts in Odisha.
NOVEMBER 2021: Like the year 2020, the rainfall outlook for the month indicates to a high probability of deficient rainfall in Odisha.