Bhubaneswar: Before launching the final attack on the coastlines of West Bengal and Odisha, it seems Cyclone Yaas is taking its position in the Bay of Bengal.
With the system becoming a depression today, the cyclone genesis has started in the Bay.
And the big development today is, going by the first predictions of the reputed models after the cyclone genesis, it seems the eye of Cyclone Yaas may cross the coast between Balasore(Odisha) and Haldia (West Bengal).
IMD DG Mrityunjay Mahapatra today has made an official prediction regarding the landfall of Cyclone Yaas, where IMD has earmarked a long-range - between Paradip in Odisha and Sagar Islands in West Bengal.
As per the ace oceanic research institute of India, INCOIS, which is under the control of Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, the Landfall of Cyclone Yaas will take place in the morning hours on May 26 in West Bengal bordering very close to Balasore.
WHAT INTERNATIONAL MODELS SAY?
Except the US-GFS, which today predicted that the landfall of Cyclone Yaas will take place between Paradip and Balasore, World’s top and accurate model ECMWF predict the landfall place between Balasore in Odisha and Haldia in West Bengal.
Even weather scientists at Accu Weather predicted that the cyclonic system will make landfall between north Odisha coast of Balasore and Haldia in West Bengal.
Reason For Differential Forecasts: The track of a cyclonic storm depends on the direction of its movement.
When US-GFS model predict that Cyclone Yaas will be charting the northwest route, the landfall place, therefore, will be Odisha, whereas ECMWF and Accu Weather conclude that the storm will chart north-northwest course. And therefore the place of landfall in West Bengal but very close to Balasore.
NOTE: The reason behind IMD’S wide range landfall forecast is also based on the direction (north-northwest or northwest) of movement of the system.
On May 24 night, the direction of Cyclone Yaas' movement can be predicted accurately.
THE POSITION OF CYCLONE YAAS TODAY
As per an analysis by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), the system today had a east-northeast ward movement.
All models have a unanimous view that the system will continue its east-northeast journey for another 24 hours. Since yesterday the system has travelled more eastwards at a speed of around 13kmph.
Models predict that on 24-25 May, the system will stop it’s east-northeast ward movement and will take a sharp north turn (towards Odisha-West Bengal coasts).
With the vertical wind shear turning low from moderate earlier in this week,the cyclonic system will intensify very fast ( by May 24) says JTWC.
Since IMD had predicted a long-range landfall forecast, and if US-GFS prediction turn true, then Odisha will have to bear the entire brunt of Cyclone Yaas.
However, there’s a unanimity between US – GFS, ECMWF and Accu Weather that the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapada and Mayurbhanj will bear the maximum brunt.
DISTRICT WISE DETAILS
- BALASORE: will see the disastrous impact of Cyclone Yaas.
- RAIN: The district will record rainfall amounting to 200-300mm
- WIND: The wind speed may touch 130 kmph in Balasore district.
- BHADRAK: This district is predicted to record over 200mm rainfall. But the wind speed will be lower at 100kmph.
- KENDRAPADA: Cyclone Yaas will pound rain in the district. Rainfall will be around 200-300mm. However, the windspeed will be in the range of 100 kmph.
- MAYURBHANJ: Most places in the district will record over 200mm rainfall and see high wind to tune of 100kmph.
These 4-districts In Odisha are going to witness the maximum impact of Cyclone Yaas.
- BHUBANESWAR: The State capital will record rainfall in the range of around 75 mm. The wind speed will be hovering over 60kmph.
- CUTTACK: This commercial city of Odisha will record rainfall of above 50mm. And the wind speed will remain around 60kmph.
- But the districts of Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, etc will see very heavy rain and high wind (100kmph).