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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

With less than 48 hours being left for the formation of low pressure area over east central Bay of Bengal, the world’s top cyclone forecasting agency, the ECMWF, based on the sea conditions as on today (May 21), has changed the landfall place from Bhadrak – Balasore in Odisha to Purba Medinipur in West Bengal.

Moreover, the country’s top ocean research agency, INCOIS, based on sea conditions today, has also changed the landfall place from north Odisha to Purba Medinipur in West Bengal.

The significance for Odisha is both top rated cyclone forecasting agencies have predicted that Odisha will be off the hook of Cyclone Yaas.

Why The Landfall Place Changed?

As per the models, the very severe cyclonic storm Yaas will chart a north west course after intensification on May 24.

But by the evening of May 25, the system will curve a little and move in the north-northwest direction. 

And during the hours of 11-12 on May 26, the system will make landfall between Purba Medinipur and South 24 Parganas in West Bengal, predict both ECMWF and INCOIS.

Cyclone YAAS Wind Speed

The season’s first cyclone in BoB, named as Yaas will intensify to a very severe cyclonic storm on May 25. The gusting wind speed, when the system is still in sea, is projected to remain at around 190kmph.

But model forecasts show, during landfall in West Bengal, the gusting wind speed is predicted to fall around 130-140kmph.

Why A Fall In Wind Speed?

Going by the model analysis, when the system reaches the coast of West Bengal, it will meet with a host of unfavorable conditions like increase in vertical wind shear, fall in tropical cyclone heat potential (TCPH) etc.

Moreover, the cyclone Yaas life-cycle seems very fast. From birth to dissipation, all is predicted to be completed within 4-days, when the mean life-time of a cyclone in BoB has been 6-days.

  • Cyclone Fani has the longest life span of 11 days.
  • 1999 Super cyclone took 5 days for Landfall.
  • Super cyclone Amphan also took 5-days.
  • Cyclone Daye had the shortest life-span in recent history.

Impact On Odisha

Based on the forecast that took the sea conditions today, and given the change in landfall place, the following districts in Odisha will witness stormy wind on May 26.

The districts are: Cuttack, Khurda, Puri, Bhadrak, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore and Mayurbhanj.

Wind Speed District Wise

  • Cuttack: Around 60 kmph gusting wind.
  • Khurda: Gusting wind speed of around 40kmph.
  • Bhubaneswar: The gusting wind speed on May 26 morning will range from 60-70kmph.
  • Puri: Gusting wind speed will be around 70kmph.
  • Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada: The gusting wind speed will be 70 kmph.
  • Bhadrak: The gusting speed will be 70-80kmph.
  • Balasore: The gusting wind speed in the morning of May 26 will touch 100kmph.
  • Mayurbhanj: The gusting wind speed is predicted to remain at around 80kmph.

Rainfall District Wise

MAY 25: Heavy rain to lash the districts of Puri, Khurda, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and Balasore. Rain will start in the districts from 11:30 night hours on May 25.

While few places across the Puri coast will receive as high as 50mm rainfall in 24 hours, the prediction is places like Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada will receive 30 mm rain in 24 hours.

  • Mayurbhanj: will receive rainfall at the rate of around 20mm in 24 hours on May 25.

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