With Odisha recording new heights of Covid daily caseload each passing day, is the State sooner or later going to see a rise in hospital admission, oxygen beds and even ICUs?
The nagging question is so when genome sequencing data lend the evidence that the third wave in many hotspot states, including Odisha, is apparently not being driven by the Omicron variant alone. The sub-lineages of the Delta variant are behind the shooting up of the daily numbers nationally, except Delhi.
In the given context, here is a sample study of hospitalisation data of the country's hotspots like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi.
Sample This
Odisha: In the month of Dec 2021, a total of around 650 samples, including samples of foreign returnees, were sent for genome sequencing at the Institute of Life Sciences, Bhubaneswar. As of date, the pangolin lineage of the AY series has been found to be dominating the districts right from Balasore to Jharsuguda. The AY-series belongs to the Delta strain, said a CDC report.
Active cases in Odisha 16,117. The hospitalisation rate is over 2.9 percent. The State has not given any data on patients on oxygen support during the period Jan1-8.
However, as the variant of concern is Odisha is Delmicron, the comparative analysis below gives a real picture for the State in the days to come.
Other Prime Hotspots
In Kerala, the December 2021 sequencing data shows that the Delta sub-lineage of AY.X had grown by nearly 207 percent in Nov-December as against a drop of over 320 percent for other delta sub-lineage like AY.44.
Overall, Delta constituted around 89 percent of the total genome sequenced during the period of October - Dec 2021.
In Karnataka, the latest genome sequencing data suggests a faster rise in Delta sub-lineages than the Omicron variant. While Omicron grew from 0 to 333 between Dec 1-Jan 8, 2022, the Delta sub-lineages grew by a massive 145 percent. And Delta (B.1617.2) variant has posted a rise of 40 percent.
In Gujarat, the Dec 2021 data shows that while 106 samples tested Delta, only 30 tested Omicron (BA.1 ) lineage. The rest were occupied by Delta sub-lineages. The Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre data clearly reveals that nearly 90 percent of the genomes sequenced belong to Delta and its sub-lineages.
In Tamil Nadu, nearly 85-90 percent of the daily caseload is Delta and its sub-lineages. Omicron is yet to gain the dominant status.
However, in Delhi, Omicron has taken the dominant strain. Nearly 65 percent of samples tested in January 2022 are Omicron variants.
Hospitalisation Status
In states like Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, where the Omicron is yet to become the dominant strain, the rate of hospitalisation and demand of Oxygen dependant beds has posted a rise in January.
Gujarat - Prior to the third wave on Dec 1, the total active cases in the State were 3,927 and 11 patients were on ventilator support.
The active cases have risen to 22,901 as of Jan 8, 2022, patients on ventilator support have risen to 25.
Despite, a rise in active cases by over 483 percent between Dec 1, 2021, and Jan 8, 2022, the patients on ventilator support dropped from 0.28 percent of active cases to 0.1 percent.
As of date, the State has not reported disease severity, despite Delta and its sub-lineages are being the dominant strain.
Tamil Nadu - The southern state has three hotspots namely Chennai, Chengalpattu and Thiruvallur. Between Jan 1- Jan 8, the TPRs grew to 14.2, 12.9 and 10.9 percent, respectively, from 2.9 percent, 2.4 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
The occupancy of Oxygen beds is up by 106 percent in Chennai, Chengalpattu (182 percent) and Thiruvallur (195 percent).
On the contrary, the total active cases in Chennai had increased by around 594 percent. Over 5.7 percent of active cases are on oxygen support in the southern metropolis. Bed occupancy in covid care centres in Chennai is high at 78 percent on Jan 8, 2022 from 0 percent on Jan 1, 2022.
Kerala - During January 1-January 7, the average active cases were 21,913, and an average of around 2 percent were admitted in oxygen beds and 2 percent were in ICU.
Moreover, while the number of active patients was up by 3 percent vis-a-vis the previous week ended on Dec 31, 2021, the number of those admitted in hospitals were up by 8 percent,
ICU admissions up by 10 percent and ventilators dependant rose by 2 percent.
The above data shows a rise in hospitalisation rate vis-a-vis the rise in active cases, though overall, as of date, only 2 percent of active cases required oxygen support.
In the above states, Delta and its sub-lineages are the dominant strains.
Delhi - This is the only state in the country where genome sequencing data had nailed Omicron as the dominant strain. Between Jan 1-Jan 8, active cases were up by 657 per cent, but the hospitalisation rate down to 3.3 percent on Jan 8 from 3.8 percent on Jan 1.
The patients on oxygen support in Delhi is below 1 percent (0.77%) on Jan 8, 2022, from 1.2 percent on Jan 1, 2022 (the date till then Delta was the dominant strain in Delhi).
The Bottom Line
In Delhi, where the Omicron is the dominant variant, the active cases fired up rapidly by a massive 657 percent during the last week, but the rate of hospitalisation and oxygen dependency recorded a drop.
However, Chennai, where Delta and its sub-lineages are dominant, has also posted a whopping growth in active cases (594 percent) during the last week.
The big difference to the fore is bed occupancy in Covid care centres in Chennai is high at 78 percent as against a mere 3.3 percent in Delhi. Moreover, oxygen dependency is higher at 5.7 percent in Chennai vis-a-vis Delhi's 0.77 percent.
In Odisha, as of date, Omicron is not the dominant strain. The delta sub-lineages are driving up the numbers in many districts and the Chennai scenario shows what will be knocking on the State's door in days to come.