Well marked low pressure over southwest Bay of Bengal; IMD predicts heavy rainfall

The Low Pressure Area over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean has intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area, according to the latest meteorological update.

The system moved west-northwestwards and lay over the southwest Bay of Bengal, and it persisted over the same region at 0830 hrs IST on February 22, 2026.

It is likely to continue moving west-northwestwards initially and then gradually recurve northeastwards over the southwest Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.

Associated Weather Systems

Several synoptic systems are currently active:

A trough extends from the well-marked low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal to south Madhya Maharashtra across central Tamil Nadu and Interior Karnataka in the lower tropospheric levels.

An upper air cyclonic circulation is present over West Assam and the neighbourhood in the lower tropospheric levels.

A trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies runs roughly along Longitude 93°E to the north of Latitude 24°N.

The Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream with core winds of around 95 knots at 12.6 km above mean sea level prevails over Northeast India.

An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Uttarakhand and the neighbourhood in the lower tropospheric levels.

A feeble trough extends from Kashmir to Ladakh in the lower tropospheric levels.

Rainfall Forecast

Under the influence of these systems, the following weather conditions are likely:

Heavy rainfall at isolated places over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala on February 22.

Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds with speeds reaching 30–40 kmph over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during February 23–26 and over Kerala & Mahe on February 22.

Isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds reaching 30–40 kmph over Odisha on February 23 and 24.

Also Read: Well-marked low persists over Southwest Bay of Bengal; IMD issues yellow warning for thunderstorms in Odisha

Thunderstorm and lightning likely over Arunachal Pradesh on February 22; East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on February 23; and Assam & Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal and Telangana on February 23 and 24.

Isolated rainfall or snowfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh on February 23 and over Uttarakhand on February 23 and 24.

Weather conditions are being closely monitored as the system is expected to change its course over the Bay of Bengal during the next two days.