Multiple western disturbances to trigger rain, snow and hail across north India; strong jet stream over northeast

A series of active weather systems across the Indian subcontinent is set to influence weather conditions over large parts of North and Northwest India over the next few days, bringing rainfall, snowfall, thunderstorms and isolated hailstorm activity.

According to the latest meteorological assessment, a Western Disturbance in the form of a cyclonic circulation is currently positioned over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab in the lower tropospheric levels. Another Western Disturbance, also marked by a cyclonic circulation, lies over southeast Pakistan and adjoining areas. This system extends from the lower to upper tropospheric levels and is tilted northwestwards with height, indicating a well-organized structure.

In addition, an induced upper air cyclonic circulation has developed over Punjab and its neighbouring regions in the lower troposphere, enhancing atmospheric instability across northwest India. Further south, an upper air cyclonic circulation persists over the southeast Arabian Sea off the south Kerala coast in the lower tropospheric levels, contributing to moisture inflow.

Meanwhile, a strong subtropical westerly Jet Stream, with core wind speeds of around 115 knots at an altitude of 12.6 kilometres above mean sea level, is prevailing over Northeast India. The presence of this powerful jet stream is likely to intensify upper-level dynamics and influence weather patterns across northern regions.

Rain and Snowfall in Himalayan Region

Under the combined influence of these systems, isolated rainfall and snowfall are likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on February 17 and 18. Uttarakhand is expected to receive isolated rainfall or snowfall on February 18 and 19.

West Uttar Pradesh may also witness isolated rainfall on February 18 as the system moves eastward.

Thunderstorms, Gusty Winds and Hail Likely

Isolated rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds with speeds reaching 30–40 kmph is likely over the Nicobar Islands, Haryana and Rajasthan on February 17 and 18. West Madhya Pradesh may experience thunderstorms and lightning on February 18.

Hailstorm activity is also likely at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana and East Rajasthan on February 18, which may cause localized damage to standing crops and infrastructure.

Also Read: Low-pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean; fishermen advised to avoid sea till Feb 22

Advisory and Outlook

The convergence of multiple Western Disturbances and associated cyclonic circulations is expected to maintain active weather conditions across the northwestern parts of the country. Residents in affected areas, particularly in hilly regions, are advised to stay updated with local weather advisories, as snowfall and thunderstorms could lead to travel disruptions and temporary power outages.

The evolving weather pattern underscores the dynamic nature of late winter systems over the region, with the interaction of mid-latitude disturbances and strong upper-level winds shaping conditions across North India.