Multiple cyclonic circulations active across India; rain in northeast, snow in Himalayas, heat to intensify in northwest

A complex weather pattern driven by multiple cyclonic circulations, trough systems and an active jet stream is influencing conditions across several parts of India, bringing rain to the Northeast, snowfall to the Western Himalayas and a steady rise in temperatures across Northwest and Central India. According to meteorological inputs, an upper air cyclonic circulation persists over northeast Bangladesh and adjoining Meghalaya, while another lies over central Assam and neighbourhood. A trough extending from northeast Bangladesh to Vidarbha in the lower tropospheric levels is enhancing moisture incursion over eastern and central regions.

At the same time, a cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and adjoining Maldives region, along with a north-south trough running from northwest Tamil Nadu to Marathwada, is contributing to atmospheric instability over southern parts of the country. Another upper cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat coast, as well as a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean, are further influencing regional weather dynamics. A trough in the westerlies at around 3.1 km above mean sea level persists along Longitude 94°E to the north of Latitude 23°N, while the Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream, with core winds of nearly 120 knots at 12.6 km altitude, continues to prevail over Northwest India.

Under the influence of these systems, isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on March 2 and 3. Meanwhile, a fresh Western Disturbance is expected to affect the Western Himalayan region from the night of March 4, followed by another from March 6 onward. As a result, isolated light rainfall or snowfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir from March 4 to 8, over Himachal Pradesh on March 7 and 8, and over Uttarakhand on March 8.

Dense fog conditions are likely during morning hours at isolated places over Sikkim till March 3, potentially affecting visibility and transport. In contrast, hot and humid weather conditions are very likely to prevail in isolated pockets over Konkan and Goa on March 4 and 5 and over the Gujarat region from March 4 to 6.

Also Read: No major change in day, night temperatures across Odisha for next week

Maximum temperatures are forecast to rise gradually across large parts of the country. Northwest India is likely to witness a 2–4°C increase over the next five days, with temperatures remaining appreciably to markedly above normal by 4–6°C during the coming week. Central India is also expected to see a 2–4°C rise over the next five days, while Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha may record an additional 2–3°C increase in the next three days. Maharashtra is likely to experience a 2–4°C rise over the next four days, and Gujarat may see a sharper increase of 3–5°C over the next three days. No significant change in maximum temperatures is expected over the rest of the country.