T20 World Cup 2026: India's semifinal qualification scenario after South Africa beat West Indies

South Africa delivered a commanding performance in their second Super 8 clash of the T20 World Cup 2026, crushing West Indies by nine wickets in Ahmedabad on Thursday. Chasing 177, the Proteas made light work of the target, reaching it in just 16.1 overs thanks to explosive innings from Aiden Markram and Quinton de Kock.

The emphatic win has propelled South Africa to the top of the Super 8 standings and strengthened their push for a semi-final berth. At the same time, the result has significantly boosted India’s prospects in the race for the last four. With India set to face Zimbabwe, their qualification scenario has now become much clearer.

West Indies entered the contest with a formidable Net Run Rate (NRR) of +5.350, but the heavy defeat saw it tumble to +1.791 - a dramatic drop that could prove decisive in the final calculations.

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For India, the equation is straightforward. If they defeat Zimbabwe and then overcome West Indies in their final Super 8 fixture, Suryakumar Yadav’s side will seal a semi-final spot regardless of Net Run Rate.

Even a setback against Zimbabwe would not completely shut the door. In that case, India would need South Africa to defeat Zimbabwe. India would then have to register a convincing win over West Indies in their final game. That scenario would see India, West Indies and Zimbabwe level on two points each, with the second semi-final spot from Group 1 being determined by Net Run Rate alongside South Africa.