When October turns deadly; Odisha’s repeating pattern of cyclones from 1999 super cyclone to Montha

On Monday morning, as Cyclone ‘Montha’ swirls closer to the Andhra Pradesh coast and threatens to bring heavy rain to southern Odisha, the month of October once again revives memories of the state’s devastating encounters with nature’s fury.

From the 1999 Super Cyclone to Phailin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Titli (2018) and Dana (2024), meteorologists have long termed October as “Odisha’s cyclone month.”

The reason for this is straightforward, as October is a period when the Bay of Bengal’s atmospheric and oceanic conditions combine to create the perfect breeding ground for storms.

October: Odisha’s Cyclone-Breeding Month

According to weather expert Sarat Sahu, October to December is historically the most active phase for tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal because of the seasonal transition of winds.

“October marks the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon. During this brief interlude, the Bay of Bengal remains unusually warm, with surface temperatures rising above 28°C, which becomes a key trigger for cyclone formation,” said Sahu.

He explained that warm waters provide the energy needed for low-pressure systems to intensify rapidly. The converging wind patterns during the monsoon transition also enhance the likelihood of storms gaining cyclonic strength.

“The return phase of the southwest monsoon and arrival of the northeast monsoon make October highly conducive for cyclone genesis. This is why major cyclones that hit Odisha in the past have nearly all occurred in this month,” concluded Sahu.

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A Trail Of October Cyclones

The history of Odisha’s tryst with cyclones is a grim reminder of October’s recurring pattern.

• On October 29, 1999, the Super Cyclone ravaged Odisha’s coast, claiming thousands of lives and leaving behind unprecedented destruction.
• On October 12, 2013, Cyclone Phailin made landfall near Gopalpur, bringing winds of over 200 kmph.
• A year later, Hudhud hit the coast on October 12, 2014, causing heavy damage to southern districts.
• Titli struck in October 2018, devastating Gajapati and Ganjam.
• Most recently, Cyclone Dana (2024) unleashed widespread damage across coastal Odisha in the same month. Each of these storms, though differing in intensity, arrived during October, bearing a testament to the month’s dangerous legacy.

Cyclone ‘Montha’ Adds To The Pattern

Now, Cyclone Montha has once again revived the pattern. Formed late Sunday night over the central Bay of Bengal, it intensified further on Monday morning and is expected to make landfall near Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) late on October 28, according to the IMD.

ALSO READ: Cyclone ‘Montha’ landfall likely near Andhra’s Kakinada: OTV takes stock at ground zero

 Though Odisha is not in the direct line of impact, the state’s southern and western districts are expected to bear the brunt of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and possible flash floods as the system moves inland.