Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: Not only Covid-19, mercury in Odisha has also been on surge path in April. As many as ten places, including Bhubaneswar and Cuttack, in the State have recorded 40 degree Celsius or more on Sunday. So, is Odisha going to see more heat waves this summer?

As per Indian Metrology Department (IMD), since there is about 40 per cent probability of the maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone remaining above normal, it suggests there will be more heat waves this summer (April - June) in the core heat wave zone.

In India, the core heat wave zone includes Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Telangana, Marathwada, central Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

Since IMD's assessment on frequency of heat waves is based on maximum temperature remaining above normal in core heat wave zone, a look at the detailed summer maximum temperature in Odisha for the period of April - June reveals the real picture.

As per IMD's seasonal outlook, the forecast departure of average maximum temperature for Odisha during the period of April - June will be only 0.1 degree Celsius vis-a-vis the long term normal summer maximum temperature.

In contrast, the maximum temperature anomalies in other states in the core heat wave zone hovers between 0.97 - 0.52 degree Celsius. The temperature anomaly, therefore, suggests higher frequency of heat waves in the core heat wave region.

Since no marked rise in the maximum temperature anomaly of the summer season in Odisha is being predicted, the State may not see more number of heat waves this summer.

However, the IMD seasonal outlook analysis reveals something significant. The summer nights in Odisha will be unusually warmer.  

The seasonal IMD outlook predicts that the anomalies in minimum summer temperature in Odisha will remain as high as 0.87 deg C vis-a-vis the long term normal minimum temperature.

The IMD analysis shows, though the number of heat waves sweeping Odisha may not post a spike, the nights are going to be sweltering and hot this summer in the state.

A news of respite here is IMD's long range forecast also shows the maximum temperature in Odisha unlikely to witness any appreciable rise during the remaining fortnight of April. The IMD models show maximum temperature in the State will see a fall after April 16, cooling down to below 40 degree C during the period.

While the maximum temperature in coastal and southern districts in the state will hover between 38-39 degree C, western and central Odisha will record a maximum temperature of around 40 degrees C during the period April 17 - 30. Some coastal districts may record maximum temperature of around 36 degrees C.

But the mercury will surge again in the month of  May, and the state will sizzle at over 42 degree C, especially in Sundergarh, Jharsuguda, Bargarh, Bolangir, Sonepur, Sambalpur and Nuapada districts. The day temperature in some coastal districts will, however, hover at around 38 degree C.

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