Cyclone Amphan will turn extremely severe near Odisha coast!

Bhubaneswar: Cyclone Amphan will come into existence in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) by the evening of today. The big watch out factor for Odisha is the cyclonic storm will acquire the ferocious category of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS), the moment it nears the Odisha coast.

The predicted track chart of cyclone Amphan released by IMD today has made this big revelation. Consequently, the days of May 19 and May 20 will be gory for Odisha. The big question is will it hit or miss? IMD is yet to spell out.

As per IMD forecast, the recurve journey of cyclone Amphan will start on Monday, when the system will be moving parallel to the Andhra Pradesh coasts in the Bay of Bengal. In its northward journey, cyclone Amphan acquires the stature of ESCS the very next day (Tuesday).

Coincidentally, at the time the cyclonic storm acquires the ESCS category, it would then be moving parallel to Odisha coast. (see the image below).

Landfall Where?

While IMD is yet to pinpoint the exact landfall location of cyclone Amphan, the GFS model of US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that cyclone Amphan will make landfall in Bangladesh (near Arongatha). (see the main image) The time of landfall is predicted at between the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday (May 20).

Lone Dissenter

Touted as the most accurate forecaster in the world, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) still see a Fani redux in Odisha. It predicts the landfall place as between Bhadrak and Balasore. (see the image below)

Significantly, ECMWF, IMD, NCMRWF-NCUM and NOAA-GFS all agree on the recurve date of cyclone Amphan as May 19, but while ECMWF revises its landfall place as Odisha, rest bets on Bangladesh.

A glance at the model hints at the difference in the prediction. The non-unanimity is due to differences in estimating the movement of the cyclonic system. While ECMWF estimates that the north-west movement of the cyclonic system will be bit deeper, others disagree. Therefore, the different inferences.

Cyclone Amphan Impact On Odisha

The US-GFS model shows since an outer band arm of the cyclonic system will be within a kissing distance from Odisha coast on May 19, the State will see impact of the cyclone from the day.  So, under its influence, post the midnight of May 18 (Monday), coastal areas in the State from Puri - Jagatsinghpur will be the first to bear the brunt. Rain and extreme windy weather will prevail in the coastal areas, post Tuesday midnight.

While the gusting wind post midnight in Puri will be 60km/hr, the gusting speed will accelerate to 70-90km/hr in the entire coastal stretch from Puri - Jagatsinghpur-Kendrapada till the noon of Tuesday (May 19). However, it has been predicted that the gusting speed in the above mentioned stretches will decelerate to 60 km/hr during the evening and night hours of Tuesday (May 19).

Since cyclone Amphan will reach near the extreme north Odisha - West Bengal coast in the early hours on May 20 (Wednesday), its consequent impact on Odisha will then shift to the districts of Bhadrak - Balasore. The gusting wind speed in the districts during the day is predicted at 70-80 km/hr, though the gusting wind speed in the early morning hours of Thursday (May 20) will be in the range of 50-70km/hr.

Both US and Indian models predict heavy rainfall in the coastal region of Odisha, especially from Puri to Balasore and Mayurbhanj. The country's ace weather researcher and forecaster, NCMRWF's (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) NCUM model predicts nearly 200 mm rainfall during the 24-hour period of May 19-20.

As per NCUM rainfall prediction, Bisoi tehsil in Mayurbhanj will record very heavy rainfall on May 20. The port city of Paradip will also record very heavy rain on Thursday. (see the image above)

The impact of cyclone Amphan on the twin city of Bhubaneswar and Cuttack will not be quite significant. While there is a prediction of light to moderate rainfall on May 19, the gusting wind speed in the twin cities will not be more than 40 km/hr, predict both NCUM and US-GFS.