Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: Not a Holi gift. Rather, call it a COVID-19 impact for the good of economy and Aam Admi. Prices of petrol and diesel in the country, including Odisha, will see a big cut in days to come. Consumers can expect at least a cut of Rs 2- 3/litre on the petroleum fuel products post the fest of colours- Holi.

Since March 1, 2020, the prices of diesel in Odisha has already seen a drop of around 64 paise and petrol prices have eased by around 66 paise. With the crude prices melting to a 4-year low now thanks to factors like COVID-19, refusal of Russia to cut back crude production and Saudi Arabia increasing crude production, the Indian Oil firms will soon announce a price cut of the auto fuels like petrol and diesel.

As per the Oil Ministry data, the price of crude oil (Indian Basket) on March 5, 2020 is quoted at $ 51.3/bbl vis-a-vis $ 64.31/barrel in January 2020. However, the exchange rate of Rupee per dollar on Monday stood higher at Rs 74.002 against around Rs 71 in January.

Significantly, in a big development, the international benchmark Brent crude futures dropped by a staggering 30 per cent to $31/barrel on March 7, 2020 and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also fallen to $30/bbl. The big thing here is both the quoted crude prices are lowest since February 2016.

It needs mentioning here that Indian Basket crude oil comprises of sour grade (means having high sulphur content) Oman and Dubai average and sweet grade (means low sulphur content) Brent crude. The WTI is oil sourced from US oil fields.

Eminent oil experts have predicted a collapse of the crude oil prices in March 2020. ExxonMobil veteran Ali Khedery has on Sunday tweeted a prediction that $20 oil in 2020 is coming! If the prediction turns true, then the prices of the auto fuel will see a drop by a massive Rs 13.50/litre in coming months.

The eminent oil expert tweeted "$20 oil in 2020 is coming. Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc - may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19."

Moreover, if Ali Khedery's forecast will hit right bang on the target, then the ailing economy of the country and the State will get a fillip. Lower crude prices will ease the crude import cost. Dipping crude prices will prove a double joy - for the economy  and the Aam Admi, provided the Rupee maintains its firmness against dollar.  Pulling out of FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) from Indian stock markets is a bad news for the health of the Rupee.

If all remains well, then Odisha will be the biggest beneficiary. How? The crude statistics below explains quite bluntly.

CRUDE STATISTICS!

*As per Oil Ministry data, the consumption of petrol in Odisha in 2019 stood at around 8.45 lakh tonnes (LT).

*The per capita consumption of petrol in Odisha stood at around 20 litres, which is highest in eastern India (Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand)

*Diesel consumption in Odisha in 2019 is estimated at around 25.96 LT.

*The per capita diesel consumption in Odisha last year has been estimated at around 141.5 litres, which is again highest in Eastern India.  Odisha figured among the top-20 diesel consuming states in the country.

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