Bhubaneswar: Half of Odisha will be going to feel the heat towards the end of the current month (March). As there will be no significant weather pattern over the north-west India, hot and dry winds will blow to Odisha from March 19 onwards, only to make the State hotter than the rest of India.
As per the MME (multi model ensemble) forecast released by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India), there is nearly 40-50 per cent probability of heat wave sweeping the State from March 25.
HEAT WAVE DISTRICT MAP
If the MME forecast is any indication, there is over 50 per cent probability of heat wave sweeping the districts like Bolangir, Kalahandi, Nuapada, Rayagada and Koraput from March 25-31.
The same forecast put a 40-50 per cent probability of heat wave sweeping the districts like Sundargarh, Keonjhar, Sambalpur, Angul, Boudh, Subarnapur, Deogarh and Bargarh.
The MME estimates that the maximum temperature in the above districts will remain above 40 deg C.
A detailed look shows the maximum day time temperature in five districts like Angul, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Jharsuguda and Sundargarh to record near 40 deg C day temperature from March 18 onwards.
WHAT IMD SAYS?
The IMD long range model has also predicted on the similar lines. The model forecast shows the day time maximum temperature in the western and central parts of Odisha ruling over 40 deg C during the last week of March. The only additional forecast it has made is the maximum day time temperature will remain as high as last week of March in the first three days of April.
However, there is no prediction of heat wave conditions in the rest of the State, especially in coastal Odisha.
WHY WEST - CENTRAL ODISHA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT?
As per the wind model forecasts, while the western part of Odisha will be bearing the brunt of hot and dry winds from north-west India from the mid of the March, it will have to additionally bear the change in wind pattern from the Bay of Bengal - the wind from the bay will be blowing from south to north-northwest direction (means will pass over the coastal region towards the districts in the central and north Odisha).
As per met experts, though this will insulate the coastal parts of the State from the north-west hot and dry winds, it will direct the hot dry wind towards the northern and central districts of the State, making them to sizzle at 40 deg C.
IMD ON FEBRUARY WEATHER IN ODISHA
As per the data available with IMD Pune, the February weather in Odisha had been hotter and foggy. With clouds eluding the skies during the month, the State figured in the list of top-5 rain deficient states in the country. (see the image below)
The deficient rainfall in the State during the past month stood at around 83 per cent, which is 5th highest in the country after Rajasthan (100%), Bihar (95%), Punjab (90%) and East UP (90%).
The data showed that the average departure of the maximum temperature recorded in February in the State ranged between 1-2 deg C. However, a glance at the day-wise departures show the State recording above normal temperature (1-3degC) since Feb 1 to 16. In the last part of Feb, except on Feb 17, the departure of maximum temperature recorded in Odisha have been appreciably above normal (3-5deg C) (see the image above)
FOG: The country saw dense fog during the period of February 11-22, and during the period Odisha witnessed dense fog conditions for nearly 4-days.