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Bhubaneswar: Odisha politics takes an effervescent turn on Tuesday as dateline for biennial polls to the Rajya Sabha has been declared by Election Commission.
As per poll schedule notified today, four seats in Odisha will go to polls on March 26. The poll is necessitated following the end of 6-year term of RS members - Ranjib Biswal, Sarojini Hembram, Narendra Swain and Anubhav Mohanty - from Odisha.
While Ranjib Biswal belongs to Congress Party, the other 2 retiring members belong to ruling BJD. BJD member Anubhav Mohanty, whose tenure also ends this April, has been elected to Lok Sabha.
The political horoscope of the forthcoming RS polls indicates one certain prediction. Though Indian National Congress has opened its account in 2019 LS polls, party will draw a blank in Rajya Sabha this time. Numbers are simply stacked up heavily against the party, even after tie-up with Left parties.
Significantly, beauty of this RS poll is despite having brute majority in Odisha Legislative Assembly, ruling BJD cannot go for a clean sweep. Numbers simply don't give a high five moment to the party.
As per constitutional norms, RS members are chosen by MLAs. Elected MLAs will vote in RS polls and the process is termed as proportional representation with the single transferable vote (STV) system, means a MLA’s vote is counted only once.
As per the system, MLAs don’t vote for each seat. Instead, they are given a paper listing the name of contestants and are asked to give their order of preference for each candidate, like 1,2,3 etc against their names. There is a norm that guides the RS poll in a State, which is: [(Number of MLAs X 100) / (Vacancies + 1)] + 1.
Consider the Odisha case. Odisha has 147 MLAs. In order to get elected, each contestant had to secure 147X 100 divided by 4 vacancies plus 1. The calculations show a candidate needs at least 29 votes to get elected to RS from Odisha.
For a clean sweep, BJD needs 116 MLAs, when the party has only 113 members. A look at the party -wise numbers in State Assembly shows BJP has 23 members, Congress 9, CPI (M) 1 and independent 1.
The numbers are so uneven that no single party can win the fourth RS seat on their own or even with minor adjustments. Because, BJD plus an independent total to 114, Cong plus CPI (M) at 10 and BJP at 23.
What permutations and combinations possible? As numbers dictate the RS poll game-plan, two scenarios emerge.
Scenario one: BJD decides to hold Congress Hand
Scenario 2: BJD makes love with a 'LOTUS'. And Scenario 3 is consensus on some eminent personalities from Odisha.
Since politics is all about clinching the best deal, scenario 2 seems to be the art of possible in the current political scenario. The 2019 precedent is evident, when BJD offered a RS seat to BJP's Ashwini Vaishnaw, despite having numerical superiority.
An encore may happen this time too, but T&C (terms & conditions) apply. Highly placed BJD sources revealed that Naveen will play the hardball. BJD will support an Ashwini Vaishnaw -II from BJP, means electorally active State BJP leader for RS will not find BJD support, the leader explained.
In 2022, Odisha will see three RS retirements and BJD has the numbers to pocket them all.
