Odisha Delays Covid-19 Second Wave Peak To Mid-May, Daily Cases 15k by May 10

Bhubaneswar: Unlike the average testing of samples to the tune of over 45k during the peak of the first wave, with a current average testing of around 41 k samples during the last week, the Odisha government has only delayed the second Covid-19 peak to mid May.

Still the big worry is, at the current weekly average growth rate of over 5 per cent, the daily positive count in the State will touch 15k by May 10.

WHY TERMING PLATEUING OF WAVE A BLUNDER?

As per WHO, if the ‘Percent Positive’, means daily positivity rate, hovers at around 5 per cent for two weeks, then the Government can call the transmission low (at plateauing stage) and go for relaxations.

However, a week by week analysis for Odisha reveals big. It calls for either increase in the testing numbers or has to go for lockdown like restrictions to cut the cycle of transmission.

The apex global health body has further warned, unless implemented either of the plans, then the governments must be ready to stare at a very tense future.

THE EPIDEMIOLGICAL TRUTHS

During the week April 15-21, the epidemic curve shows that the 7-days rolling average (3,847) was nearly 26 per cent less than the daily count on April 21. This shows the transmission is high and on the ascent.

On the contrary, in the succeeding week ended on April 28, the 7-days rolling average (6594) is 27.2 per cent less than the daily confirmed tally of 8,386 on April 28. Besides, the 7-days rolling average in this week had posted a sharp rise vis-a-vis the previous week. This indicates how the rise and transmission is growing bigger week by week in the State.

MEASURING THE PANDEMIC GROWTH

When in the first week, the total new cases aggregated to 26,932, in the succeeding week the cases zoomed up by 71 per cent to touch to a total of 46,198 cases.

Significantly, the rise in the number of samples tested in week 2 vis—a-vis week 1 had been a mere 18 per cent. Moreover, the weekly test average was 35,032 in the week Apr 15-21 as against 41,455 in the succeeding week.

The dis-proportionate rise in new cases vis-a-vis the samples tested nails the truth of pandemic growth in the State.

THE PERCENT TEST

Since the ‘per cent positive’ puts the pandemic growth in real perspective, it has been observed that the weekly positive rate in the week ended on April 21 stood at around 11 per cent. In contrast, the weekly positive rate in the succeeding week has risen to around 16 per cent.

The sharp spurt in the per cent positive between reference week number 1 and 2 shows that the transmission of virus has increased in the State quite conspicuously.

As per WHO, the threshold value of per cent positive is 5 per cent, and the indicator in Odisha has been under severe stress week over week.

“High per cent positive means there is a need for more testing, and at the same time it demands for more restrictions to contain the brisk transmission of the virus. Moreover, a high percentage positive tests hints at community transmission of the virus,” says WHO.

THE DISTRICTS OF ISOLATION

Going by the WHO norm, a look at the test positive rates of at least 7 districts (Sundargarh, Sambalpur, Khurda, Nabarangpur, Bargarh, Nuapada, Puri) –where the positive rate varies in the range of 42-23 per cent – shows that they have been witnessing community transmission. And exactly this could push the State to an explosive situation by the peak time (mid-May).