Odisha Covid-19 Second Wave Peak Likely In May 1st Week, State In Pre-Peak  Stage Now

Bhubaneswar: Spreading like a forest fire, the second wave of coronavirus in Odisha has virtually entered the pre-peak phase in just 48-days.  Given the brisk rise, the State will be witnessing the peak in May first week only.

SECOND WAVE IN A HURRY?

When in the first wave, Odisha took nearly 103 days to cross the 1k – mark, the State crossed the 1000 count in just 48 days during the ongoing second wave.

On February 19, the daily new confirmed cases in the State were 53. The count breached the 1k-mark to a total of 1282 on April 8. In contrast, during the first wave, the State had crossed the 50-mark on April 10 and breached the 1k-mark on July 22.

As per a senior health department official, the long-time taken to cross the 1k per day or enter the pre-peak period during the wave-one need to be seen in the context of unprecedented events like nearly 60-days lockdown. The lockdowns have delayed the pre-peak stage, he observed.

WHEN WILL BE THE SECOND WAVE PEAK?

“After making into the pre-peak phase, the State took mere 54 days to have the peak during the first wave.” disclosed a senior State health department official.

He, however, outlined that as the conditions in the second wave are different – the strain is having a rapid growth this time plus there is no lockdown like conditions – it is assumed that the second wave peak will come to Odisha as early as the first week of May.

WILL THE DAILY CASES SURPASS WAVE-ONE PEAK?

Epidemiologists in the Odisha National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) believe that unlike an average of around 4,153 cases daily during the first wave, the second wave peak in the State may see the average daily cases hovering in the range of 5.5k.

As of today, the last 7-days (April 2-8) average of daily new cases stood at around 719, which is nearly 17 per cent of the average daily cases of 4,153 during the 7-day peak period in September 2020.

Though the gap is still long, the rapid-fire growth hints that the State may record a bigger peak in May first week, they observed.

IS THE SECOND WAVE HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS?

A look at the daily Test Positive Ratio (TPR) bares it all. In the pre-peak phase of the first wave, Odisha had a TPR of over 4 per cent when the total tests were around 48-49k.

The sheer contagiousness is to the fore today as the State has recorded a TPR of 4.4 per cent when the total tests stood at just around 29,081.

Nail the contagiousness this time. What seems significant is when the tests conducted today has been nearly 7 per cent less vis-a-vis the previous day, the new daily cases have posted a big leap of 47 per cent.

The high jump in daily cases despite lower tests convey how fast the corona curve is moving in the State.

IS THE 2K-MARK COMING SOON?

As per NRHM epidemiologists, the second wave growth rate in State gives all indications that Odisha may breach the 2k cases per day mark within the next 10 days.