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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar:  With the withdrawal of Monsoon from the Central part of India this year is being predicted between 14th and 24th October, Odisha is all set to witness more low pressure induced rains throughout the months of September and October this year.

The conditions then further hint at the Monsoon withdrawing from Odisha by the end of October.

Significantly, when the State is all set to witness heavy rainfall on September 2-3 owing to a likely depression system over north Bay of Bengal, weather models by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) further show development of another low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal on and around September 7.

Even, the US-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) has made forecasts that show Odisha will be experiencing precipitation amounting to over 50 mm (5cm) in the week ending on September 13 (as shown in the figure).

As per the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the withdrawal of monsoon in 2019 is expected in the third week of October only. And the reason behind delayed withdrawal is attributed to very high temperature on the periphery of monsoon in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"It takes longer time when the whole continent cools down to the temperature of monsoon withdrawal," said its lead researcher Elena Surovyatkina.

It needs worth mentioning that last year just before days of Monsoon withdrawal, the active Bay of Bengal had spun a severe cyclonic storm Titli.

Notably, last year the month of September had witnessed more phenomenon of low pressure areas (lopar), and one such lopar had developed to cyclone Daye that crossed the Odisha coast on and around 21 September.

It has been observed that the atmosphere gets more unstable during the last leg of Monsoon and the vertical wind shear gets stronger. These two conditions have the ability to turn a lopar into cyclone.

Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted moderate thunderstorms for today in only three districts of Koraput, Nabarangpur and Kalahandi.

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