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Lockdown impact: Covid-19 India doubling rate exhibits a dip between Mar 22 & 25!

During March 17-21, n-CoV cases in country doubled in 4-days. Post largescale interventions & restrictions, doubling rate slowed down. From March 22-25, Covid-19 cases in country grew by 1.9 times vis-a-vis 2.3 times during Mar 17-21

Bhubaneswar: As the world is battling hard to come out of this Chinese-origin novel coronavirus crisis, the words of former US President J F Kennedy that “When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters — one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity” flashes up in the mind once again.

Exactly, the Wuhan-born Covid-19 has heralded an unforeseen danger for the world, including India, and at the same time it throws up an opportunity before everyone to defeat the lethal designs of the coronavirus.

Addressing the nation yesterday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a 21-day or 3-week lockdown in the country to contain the transmission of the virus. PM said, it is the need of this crisis-hour, or else India will be pushed 21-years into the past.

The moot point here is will the country-wide lockdown contain the rapid transmission of the virus in the country?

An analysis attests to it positively. As per globally accepted yardstick, where rate of doubling of cases indicate how severe is an epidemic, the rate of doubling up of Covid-19 cases in the month of March, known as Covid-19 month when novel coronavirus positives spiralled up in the country, puts the Covid-19 situation in India in right perspective.

Consider the facts. The country saw the first upsurge in novel coronavirus cases on March 4. The Covid-19 count on the date rose to 32. It took the n-CoV another 6 days to double the count to 65 on March 10. Following the trend, the virus took another 6-7 days to double the total infections in the country to 140 on March 17.

But just within a span of 4-days, the novel coronavirus positive counts grew by 2.3 times to touch 322 on March 21.

The rapid growth of n-CoV then alerted the high-burden states like Maharashtra and Kerala. Stung by the viral menace, governments there then took the policy decision like lockdowns in the affected cities or districts. Maharashtra and Kerala had announced lockdown in the affected places on March 21.

Four cities in Maharashtra, which recorded most Covid-19 cases, were put under lockdown on March 21, and Kerala followed suit when it announced lockdown for the 3 worst-hit districts on the same date.

The hard numbers show, when in the period of March 17-21, the novel coronavirus cases in the country doubled in just 4-days, post large-scale interventions and restrictions, the rate of doubling has apparently slowed down. Within 4-days (March 22-25), the Covid-19 positive cases in country grew by 1.9 times to touch the tally of 614.

The numbers clearly showed how the rapid growth hit a bump leading to a lower rate of doubling of cases in the country. This shows preventive interventions have a role in containing transmission of novel coronavirus.

The success of three Asian countries like China, Japan and South Korea in containing the transmission of n-CoV through such preventive interventions are evident to the efficacy of lockdown strategy in combating novel coronavirus speed of transmission .

COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Maharashtra tops with 121 cases. Deaths – 3 and Recovery – Nil.

* Kerala 2nd with 109 cases, Deaths – nil Recovered – 4 *Delhi – 3rd with 30. Deaths – 1, Recovered – 6




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