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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: The Bay of Bengal's first pre-monsoon cyclone Amphan has been playing a waiting game for long. But the time is up for the game now.

All the lead Met agencies world over have today agreed that cyclone Amphan will make landfall on May 19-20, and the veil over cyclone Amphan's track has also been lifted. Almost all predict that the cyclone will grow up to become a very severe cyclonic storm.   

After giving the weather scientists a lot of anxieties since April last, the haze around Amphan, cyclone-in-waiting, finally clears out. The lead met models like ECWMF, IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS (US), NEPS, GEFS, NCUM and INCOIS have predicted that the cyclone genesis will start by May 16 over the central Bay of Bengal. And the land fall will be around May 19-20, as the Madden Julian Oscillation will be remaining strongest till May 20 in Indian Ocean.

As per Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, Delhi, today the cyclonic circulation of cloud clusters over south Andaman Sea and adjoining Sumatra coast lies over south Andaman sea and neighbourhood extending upto mid-tropospheric levels. (see the image below)

Cyclone Amphan

RSMC adds that under its influence, a low pressure area (LOPAR) is very likely to form over south east Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining Andaman sea by May 14.

It has been observed that pre-cyclone cloud clusters move westwards and occupy an area of 5 degree square. Consequently, RSMC says the system will become more marked over the central parts of south BoB by May 16 (see the image below).

cyclone Amphan

Where will Cyclone Amphan Venture into?

Well, the symphony witnessed among all lead Met models is cyclone Amphan will move towards north BoB. This seems a great news for Odisha. Because, unless the system takes a little north-west tilt, Odisha will simply remain out of its radar.

INCOIS: The latest observation of country's this premier ocean research agency is cyclone Amphan will go the cyclone Bulbul way. The severe system will head towards Bangladesh. And the landfall will be on May 19. (see the image below)

[caption id="attachment_450658" align="alignnone" width="650"]Cyclone Amphan Left: System moving along odisha coasts, Right: System making landfall in Bangladesh[/caption]

ECMWF: World's this topmost cyclone forecaster seems to be in complete unanimity with India's INCOIS. It's latest prediction shows cyclone Amphan going the Bulbul way. Predicting its landfall place as Bangladesh, it says the date will be on May 20. (see the image below).

[caption id="attachment_450659" align="alignnone" width="650"]cyclone Amphan ECMWF predicts landfall in Bangladesh[/caption]

IMD-GFS: Indian Meteorological Department's cyclone tracker model also concurs with the above two predictions. The prediction is the system will move north-northeast, which means away from India's coasts.

cyclone genesis in Bay of Bengal

The Synopsis: A look at the images above hints at the area (dark red patch) where the cyclone genesis will take place in BoB. Since tropical cyclones always chart a north route, the place of origin indicates where the cyclone Amphan will head for landfall. And it seems the impact on Odisha will be akin to the impact of cyclone Bulbul.

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