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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: With the very severe cyclonic storm Bulbul now being stationed at nearly 500 km away from Vishakapatnam at 12 hours today, Odisha will be witnessing the Bulbul impact from midnight of November 8.

As per the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre's (JTWC) latest bulletin, Bulbul will come closest to Odisha coast at midnight today, and from where it will take a curve to head towards West Bengal (see the image).

At the stroke of midnight today, heavy rains will lash the districts of Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Balasore. Jagatsinghpur will bear the maximum brunt, as Bulbul will fly very close to Paradip tonight. As per latest JTWC bulletin, Bulbul will be close to Kendrapada at 6 am on November 9, and by 12 noon will be near West Bengal.

The forecast by US based Global Forecast shows (image above) that districts like Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara will record a massive 90 mm rain, whereas places like Bhubaneswar, Khurda, Cuttack and Jajpur are predicted to record nearly 40 mm rain. Whereas places like Nayagarh, Mayurbhanj and Dhenkanal will record at least 15 mm rainfall.

As per US-GFS, Bulbul will make landfall at the stroke of midnight in West Bengal (Sunderbans) on November 9, only to head for Bangladesh.

The JTWC's cyclone analysis shows that the shadow of Bulbul's cone looms large over Odisha.

It says Bulbul's effect will be felt in a radial distance of 220 km. The sustained wind speeds in the distance will be over 70 km/hr.

For which, places like Puri and Bhubaneswar will see wind speed gusting up to 40 km/hr from midnight today to till morning tomorrow (Nov 9).

While the Government of India's premier ocean research centre INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services) today predicted Bulbul's land fall will be in West Bengal, the organisation's release at mid-day warns Odisha of witnessing a sea tide up to 2 -3.8 metre.

Maximum wave height will be witnessed in Balasore. Moreover, the seas up to 10 km across the coastal Odisha will record swell of 1 - 2.3 metre. Maximum swell will again be recorded in Balasore.

The warning here is the swell and high tides may see sea ingress in low lying coastal areas, especially in Balasore, Kendrapara and Jagatsingpur.

The IMD has also issued yellow warning  for the entire coastal belt of north Odisha for tonight and Orange warning for tomorrow (Nov 9).    

Even at the nick of moment, three lead met centres like UK Met Centre, Japan Met Agency and ECWMF (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast) still bet on Bulbul hitting between north Odisha and West Bengal coasts.  Their surmise is if the system moves fast then the recurve is unlikely and north Odisha will take a direct hit.

Significantly, the UK Met centre predicts a high of 5 mm rainfall per hour in  north Odisha from midnight today. Such a high intensity of rains may create flash flood like situation in districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur.

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