Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar:  With the tropical cyclone Bulbul taking birth in Bay of Bengal, and it's eye being also shaping up fast, indications are that 'Bulbul' will chirp louder soon (means intensify into a severe cyclonic storm). And all eyes now are on where would Bulbul fly.

It's where the newly born Bulbul tests the acumen of weather scientists globally, and are giving them a run for money.

While India's premier Met agency IMD's latest bulletin forecasts that Bulbul would wing up towards West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts, the model of Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Government of India's premier Ocean research unit, predicts Bulbul making landfall between north Odisha - West Bengal.

Not only India, this BulBul has the potential to baffle the met scientists world over. When four lead agencies globally predict Bulbul will head for Bangladesh, two still bet on Odisha.

But the significant breaking today post-birth of Bulbul is Odisha will witness rains till November 13, especially coastal and North Odisha.

However, IMD midday bulletin forecasts rains in Odisha till November 10. The bulletin said districts like Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak and Kendrapada would see rains from 8 Nov, whereas Cuttack, Jajpur and Mayurbhanj will see rainfall on Nov 9-10.

 Sample this: The US Met agency Global Forecast System's (GFS) latest forecast shows that cyclone Bulbul will make landfall between West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.

And its precipitation chart shows that Odisha's north coastal districts like Balasore, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and pockets of Mayurbhanj, will witness heavy rainfall. And districts like Ganjam, Angul and Dhenkanal will witness light rainfall.

The wind speed will vary from 40 - 60km/hr in coastal districts, high winds (80-90km/hr) especially in Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak, Balasore and parts of Kendrapada.  

The UK met department (NAVGEM) forecasts that Bulbul cyclone will make landfall mainly in Bangladesh. Its precipitation chart shows that Odisha will remain mostly dry, with north coastal Odisha witnessing significant rain and winds at over 40 km/hr.

Similarly, the Canada Met Centre forecast (GEM) show the cyclone making landfall between West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts, places in Odisha like Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack will witness wind at around 40km/hour and rain on Sunday (Nov 10). The districts like Kendrapada, Balasore and pockets of Mayurbhanj will witness heavy rains along with high winds (over 60Km/hr). Mayurbhanj will witness heavy rains till Nov 13.

Brazil's ICON forecast shows Bulbul winging the Bangladesh way. While southern coastal districts will see no rainfall, places like Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack will witness moderate rainfall and districts like Kendrapada, Bhadrak, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore and Mayurbhanj will witness heavy rainfall.

However, like India's INCOIS, two other lead met agencies in the world - Japan Meteorology Agency and ECWMF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast) stand as outliers.

Both didn't accept the recurve theory of agencies like IMD, US-GFS, CMC and Brazil-ICON. And their forecast shows Odisha, especially north coasts, to bear the bulbul wrath on Nov 10.