Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: No good news seemingly for Odisha. The Low Pressure Area (LOPAR) that is likely to develop over the north Andaman sea on November 4 (Monday) will later progress into a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BoB).

And the bad news is it will move towards northern Odisha coast and may hit between Jagatsinghpur and Balasore by November 10-11.

And if the models are to be believed, the wind models suggest that the system may make landfall in and around False Point  in Kendrapada district (As shown in the Picture).

Significantly, October - November period has been the cyclone season in BoB. But post brewing up Fani in May this year, the BoB has been relatively quieter this year till date, when the usually cooler Arabian Sea has brewed up two cyclones - Kyarr and Maha -  in quick succession.

As per the wind models forecast of INCOIS (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services), under Ministry of Earth Sciences, the low pressure system will develop into a tropical cyclone and move towards the Odisha coast.

The reason: the wind velocity of the system is predicted at around 38 knots, when a system with a velocity of 34 knots is termed as cyclone in BoB.

However, IMD in its mid-day weather inference today mentioned only about formation of a LOPAR over north Andaman sea and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal by November 4. And it becoming a depression by November 7.

But the weather inferences show the depression will later progress into a cyclonic system.

As per the weather norms, a depression in Bay of Bengal could develop into a cyclonic system, provided the central pressure of the Low-Pressure system falls by 5-6 hPa (HectoPascal). Since the central pressure of the system is predicted to drop to around 995 -1002 hPa by November 9, which is atleast 13 hPa less than the mean sea level pressure, the system then will certainly become a tropical cyclone.

Moreover, the cyclonic systems have a angular momentum and they move towards pole, for which, the IMD has made a forecast that the system will move northwestwards post forming depression.

"As the movement of a cyclone to higher latitudes (from equator towards poles) creates an acceleration to the east. So an initially westward moving system, on average, begins to veer to the north and as it does so its westward movement slows and eventually turns into an eastward movement. And in this scheme of things, Odisha coast comes into picture," explained a retired senior IMD scientist.