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Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: With as many as nine reputed Met models having unanimously predicted that the cyclone-in-making, Amphan will date Bangladesh coming Wednesday, it is certain that Odisha will not see the redux of last May's Fani ferocity.

But the disconcerting music to the State's ear is, nearly eight of them have made a prediction that cyclone Amphan will pass along the Odisha coast, especially north Odisha, within a kissing distance. (see the image below)

cyclone Amphan

As per the prediction by world's topmost and accurate cyclone forecaster European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF) forecast, there is a high probability (over 70 per cent) that cyclone Amphan will pass within a range of 300 km radius from north Odisha coasts. (see the image below)

[caption id="attachment_451230" align="aligncenter" width="650"]Bay of Bengal cyclone Amphan The blue colour code reflects high probability[/caption]

Consequently, India's National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast's (NCMRWF) NCUM-G model predicts extreme precipitation and highly windy weather on May 19-20. While the districts like Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapada, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, places in Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar will record extreme precipitation and highly windy weather on May 19-20, places like Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Nayagarh and Dhenkanal will witness significant precipitation and windy weather on the same dates. (see the image below)

[caption id="attachment_451231" align="aligncenter" width="650"]Cyclone Amphan Violet colour shows extreme rain, dark green represents highly windy[/caption]

The predictions by NCMRWF, however, shows no adverse weather phenomenon (heavy rain) in south Odisha, though  Ganjam and Gajapati will see highly windy  weather on May 19-20.  (see the image below)

[caption id="attachment_451232" align="aligncenter" width="650"]cyclone Amphan Windy weather in Ganjam on May 18-19[/caption]

Since COVID-19 cases are high in coastal region, the adversity of cyclone Amphan is being seen as a litmus test for Odisha's disaster resilience.

How Met Models read cyclone Amphan's destiny?

IMD-GFS: IMD's this model indicates that post forming of depression on May 16, cyclone Amphan will travel northward till May 17. On May 18, the system will take a north-northeastwards recurve towards northwest BoB off West Bengal-Bangladesh coast. IMD-GFS predicts cyclone Amphan to grow up as a severe category cyclonic storm.

ECMWF: Predicting Amphan to grow as a severe cyclonic storm, this top Met agency model shows the system will move northward till May 18. The system will then take a north-northeastward  recurvature thereafter towards northwest BoB off West Bengal- Bangladesh coast. (see the main image)

INCOIS: As per the country's  ace ocean research agency's observation, the system will make landfall on May 20 in West Bengal and Bangladesh, like the cyclone Bulbul’s landfall last November. (see the image below)

bay of bengal cyclone amphan

NAVGEM (US): The prediction of this model by US Navy also shows cyclone Amphan making landfall in West Bengal - Bangladesh coming Wednesday. And also heavy rain prediction for north coastal Odisha.(see the image below)

cyclone amphan

ICON: This model of Germany Met Service also predicts Amphan missing Odisha coasts. Landfall will be on May 20 in WB-Bangladesh. (see the image below)

Amphan cyclone

US-GFS: This model of US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the lone reputed model that bets on Bangladesh-Myanmar as the place for cyclone Amphan's landfall.

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