Sanjeev Kumar Patro

Bhubaneswar: The second wave has been quite cracking in Odisha, unlike the marathon steady rise in the first wave. In just 26-days, the contagious virus has accomplished over 70 per cent of first wave daily peak count, which it took over 117-long days to reach.

With the detection of 3,144 new positive cases today, the daily count in Odisha has accomplished 70 per cent of the daily peak count of 4,356 recorded on September 26, 2020.  It picked pace in the last nine days as the daily new confirmed cases on April 7 were a mere 18.15 per cent of the September peak in the first wave. In a span of 9-days (April 8-16), the daily count took a share of 72.2 per cent of the first wave peak. (see the graph below)



The zipping speed of the second wave is evident from the image given below. The comparative data image between daily case growth vis-a-vis a number of samples tested given below nails the sprint run of the second wave in Odisha.


As per the trend observed in states across the country, the wrapping up of 70 per cent of peak count in a shorter span has ultimately led to a massive outburst of daily cases within 2-24 days.

Consider the following instances.

  • CHHATTISGARH: In the first wave, the average cases during the peak period was around 3400. The State covered 70 per cent on March 26 during the second wave. The daily cases turned explosive. It is reporting an average of nearly 14k cases per day.
  • DELHI: The national capital clocked an average of 4.4k cases daily during the first wave peak. In the second wave after clocking 70 per cent of the first wave peak in 16-days, it’s reporting nearly 3-times more cases per day.
  • BIHAR: Though India recorded a peak in September, Bihar touched a peak in August when the average cases per day were over 3k. During the second wave, the State achieved 70 per cent of the first wave peak count on April 9. Within 48-hours, Bihar has reported nearly two times more cases vis-a-vis first wave peak count.
  • MADHYA PRADESH: This central Indian state had recorded an average of over 2.5 k cases daily during the first wave peak. On March 24, the state clocked 70 per cent of the first wave peak. 24-days later, it is reporting 5-times more case vis-a-vis first wave peak.
  • The same trend is witnessed in Maharashtra, Haryana, Gujarat and Karnataka.

Therefore, the countdown for a steep surge in cases in Odisha has begun. It is only in the backdrop of this scenario, the Odisha government has enforced movement restrictions like night curfew in urban areas of the state hotspots well in advance.


How fast is the second wave in Odisha? View the Graph below. The first signs of the return of Covid-19 flashed on March 22 when the daily count crossed the 100-mark. There is certainly no looking back after that. Rather, the virus is apparently in a galloping mood. (see the graph below)


Have a glance at the daily recovery rate in the State. The rate hurtled down fast in just 9-days. From a high of 56 per cent, fell like nine pins to a mere 30 per cent on April 1. (see the graph below).

 NOTE: When the recovery rate will reach 85 per cent or more, then only the peak will come downslope, as evidenced by the first wave data.


The above chart shows how the daily recovery rate in the State has been on the downslide.

What the graph below tells is how the caseload rate is on an upward trajectory. The moot point here is unless the gap between the recovery and caseload rate narrows down, the spike in cases will continue in the State.

NOTE: As of today, the gap stands high at over 40 per cent. The wave will evaporate when the difference comes to nil, though a bridging of the gap will tell the State that the second wave’s tail is up now.