Bhubaneswar: The State capital is witnessing an explosive rise in new Covid-19 cases since the beginning of April. The number of new cases has grown by a massive 558 per cent to 191 today vis-a-vis of only 29 on March 31, though the last 7-days rolling average give some hope to recoup.
CAPITAL CITY’S EPIDEMIC CURVE
The Epi-Curve of Bhubaneswar brings some news of relief to the BMC authorities, who of late have been firing from all cylinders to infuse some stability to the shooting corona curve in the city.
Analysing the epidemic curve of the city for the last 14-days show some impact of the series of actions initiated by the civic authorities following the sudden surge in April first week.
A look at the epi-curve for the period of March 31 to April 6 shows that the gap between the 7-days rolling average and the daily cases on April 6 was a massive 74 per cent.
The epi-curve for the period of April 7-16 shows the gap between the 7-days rolling average and the daily new cases on April 13 shrinks to around 26 per cent.
The comparative analysis of the epi-curve for the last two weeks show that the rise in cases in the second week has been slower vis-a-vis the first week.
SMART CITY’S DAILY INFECTION RATE
Though the daily infection rate (DIR) of the City remains positive, the DIR shows sign of stabilisation. The DIR today has been estimated at 0.11 from 0.13 the previous day.
The stabilising DIR during the last 7-days shows a pick up in the recovery rate in the city.
COVID TESTS IN CITY
As per BMC authorities, a total of around 4000, including the tests in the private sector, samples are being tested daily. Is that enough?
Since a rise in testing throws up more new positives, in the indicator of tests per confirmed case, the value today is estimated at around 20.
As per WHO, the ideal ratio should be above 20 and up to 30. This hints at the need for more tests in the Capital city.
THE LOCAL TRANSMISSION WORRY
A detailed look at the last 14-days data reveals that the local contact cases in the city during the last 7-days have dropped to around 85 per cent of the total daily positive cases as against 93 per cent of total cases in the preceding 7-day period.
CITY HOTSPOTS – A REDUX OF WAVE ONE
The ward wise data prepared by BMC reveals that most of the clusters in the second wave have been the hotspots in the first wave too. And like the first wave, the slums have again become the sitting ducks in the new onslaught by the contagious virus.
As per highly placed sources, the slums in ward number 2, 12, 19, 23 (Khandagiri) and 27 (Nayapalli) have been contributing to the rising count of positive cases in the Capital city. They together contribute nearly half of the active cases during the last fortnight.