Bhubaneswar: Keeping the weatherman world over guessing over its landfall date, this year's first cyclone is taking its own time to evolve. All weather models had earlier predicted that the cyclone in making in Andaman seas will make landfall in May first week. But the cyclonic system has its last laugh.
As per the latest model forecasts, the cyclone in making will make landfall in the early part of May second week. IMD today confirmed formation of a Low Pressure Area (LPA) over the south Andaman seas adjoining south east Bay of Bengal.
It further says, "It is very likely to become more marked over the same region during the next 48 hours, concentrate into a depression over Andaman Sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during subsequent 48 hours and likely to intensify further thereafter. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards gradually till 05th May." (See the image of cyclone on May 6)
The models of Indian tropical cyclone watch agencies show the cyclone will progress slowly, and in the meantime will gather more intensity on its track towards the coasts. (see the image below)
Though none of the Met agencies world over has predicted the landfall place and date officially, their numerical models have a unanimity. The prediction is the probable cyclone will drift away from Indian coasts and make a landfall in north Myanmar.
Why the cyclone will drift away?
A tropical cyclone due to Coriolis Effect will bend towards the right, while moving in the north direction. Initially, all tropical cyclones move in north, north-west direction. But later they bend a bit right while tracking the north route. Tropical cyclones never follow a linear path.
Now, consider why Odisha came on Fani's track last year, and why the evolving cyclone will give a miss to the Odisha coast.
Since the origin places of both the cyclones are different, their track will be different. Odisha was right on the track of extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani's northward track. (see the image below)
In the case of current cyclone, due to coriolis effect, the system while on its northward track will keep away from the Indian coasts, only to head towards north Myanmar.