The southwest monsoon is on a withdrawal track in Odisha and such conditions are usually conducive for formation of cyclones. However, it is still unclear whether the state will experience the first post-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal as no forecast is yet to be made by the premier weather agency- India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The weather models of other agencies- GFS and ECMWF indicate towards formation of likelihood cyclone near Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast.
The people in Odisha are anxiously waiting for the IMD’s forecast as they can take necessary precautions in advance. Senior IMD officials earlier maintained that it is too early to make a forecast as of now as everything depends on the formation of a low pressure.
As per today’s forecast by IMD, a cyclonic circulation lies over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood and extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal around October 20.
A clear picture is likely to emerge only after the low pressure area develops. No warning for rainfall has been issued by the IMD till October 21.
IMD further said the low pressure system is likely to move westnorth westwards towards west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and become more marked during the subsequent 48 hours.
Sarat Sahu, senior weather expert said, “The conditions are favourable for formation of cyclone. Only after low pressure forms, a clear picture will emerge. But several models indicate that it may intensify into a cyclone.”
According to Sahu, the system’s intensification is likely to start from October 21. It appears that the system will follow the track of cyclone Fani.
“Though there are variations in several models, many indicate that the system may develop into a cyclone as conditions are favourable. As of now, the system is heading towards Tamil Nadu and it will change its direction towards north, either Odisha-Andhra or Odisha-West Bengal coast,” Sahu added.