Even as the RSMC bulletin today changes the date of formation of the low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal to July 23 from July 21 earlier, it seems the cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay will remain less marked and unlikely to develop to a low-pressure centre later.
While Maharashtra, including Mumbai, is predicted to record heavy rains till July 22, the cyclonic circulation will induce rains over Odisha from July 21 - 23. As per ECMWF data, while places in Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada and Cuttack districts will see very heavy rain (in the range of 25mm per 6 hours), the whole State will record rainfall in the range of 4-10 mm per 6 hours.
The ECMWF predictions show that southern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana will be recording very heavy rainfall on July 22. (see the image below).
Odisha's Mumbai Moment
As per ECMWF and GSF model data, a low-pressure area will form over the northwest Bay of Bengal, very close to the Odisha coast, on July 27. Under the influence of the system, the State is likely to record heavy rainfall from July 26.
The ECMWF predictions show very heavy rainfall in the districts like Balasore, Mayurbhanj and Sundargarh in the evening hours on July 26. The whole of western Odisha will see rainfall in the range of 4-10 mm per 6 hour on the same day.
However, on July 29, coastal districts from Puri to Jagatsinghpur, including Khordha and Cuttack, are predicted to receive very heavy rainfall during the early morning hours. (see the image given above).
According to IMD data, the monsoon rainfall over Odisha as of today is 40 per cent less than the actual amount of rainfall the State receives in July. Against the normal rainfall of 190 mm, the actual stood at 119.6mm.
A district wise glance shows that as many as 17 districts have recorded deficient rainfall in July, whereas 7 have recorded largely deficient rainfall. Though the rest of districts have received less rainfall than the actual, the variation is below 19 per cent, hence qualified to be grouped as districts with normal rainfall.
However, if cumulative rainfall in this monsoon season is taken into account then a high of 18 districts have recorded deficient rainfall in the range of 24 to 44 per cent. Bhadrak district has recorded a deficient rainfall of 60 per cent.
The deficient rainfall is recorded in the western, northern and south interior and south coasral districts. The only exceptions in south Odisha are Malkangiri and Koraput.