With the low pressure area lying over Odisha, the skyline of the State is today clouded by rain-bearing clouds. However, with the system shifting farther towards the northwest, as many as 25 districts, including Bhubaneswar and Cuttack, will not record rain from around 11 am tomorrow.
As per a meteorological analysis by IMD, ECMWF and US-GFS, except for the districts of Keonjhar, Jharsuguda, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Mayurbhanj and Jagatsinghpur, the rest of the districts in the State are not going to witness any significant rainfall from July 24 to the morning hours of July 26.
However, following the formation of a fresh low pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal, close to Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts on July 27-28, Odisha will be recording very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from the morning hours (11 am) on July 28. There is a forecast of widespread rainfall across the districts in the State.
The weather analysis shows that nearly 36-hours prior to the formation of the low pressure area, as many as 14-15 districts will record heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms during the evening hours (4-6 pm) on July 26 and 27.
- July 26: Thunderstorm forecast for districts of Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Balangir, Nuapada, Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sundargarh, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Sonepur, Boudh, Angul, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Balasore and Jagatsinghpur.
- July 27: Heavy rain is predicted in the districts of Sundargarh, Deogarh, Angul, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak and Balasore.
However, the real action will begin in the evening hours (5-6 pm) on July 28 and will last till the morning hours of July 30. The ECMWF forecast shows the accumulated rainfall across the State in the range of 10-100 mm. The district-wise details are given below.
- July 28: While the north coastal Odisha districts, including places like Bhubaneswar and Cuttack, are predicted to record a total rainfall (light) of around 5-10 mm, most of the districts in the north and south interior Odisha are predicted to receive total rainfall in the range of 10-50mm in 6 hours.
- July 29: At around 11 am, very heavy rainfall is predicted across the State. The districts like Khordha, Cuttack, Nayagarh, Kandhamal, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Sundargarh, Balangir, Kalahandi etc. are predicted to record an accumulated rainfall of around 30-50mm per 6 hours. The rest of the districts will see rainfall in the range of 10-25 mm.
- July 29: In the morning hours, many places in the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar may receive extremely heavy rainfall of up to 100mm.
- July 30: The north interior districts in the State are predicted to receive very heavy rainfall. the total rainfall will be in the range of 40-50 mm per 6 hours.
Monsoon Stock Taking
As per IMD, the rainfall recorded today (July 23) district-wise.
- Jagatsinghpur recorded the highest - 108.7mm
- Subarnapur ---- 101.5 mm
- Kendrapada --- 88.5mm
- Puri --- 79.9 mm
- Bhadrak --- 67.9mm
- Balasore --- 43.3mm
- Jajpur ---- 37 mm
- Balangir --- 35.7 mm
- Cuttack ---- 34 mm
Deficient Rainfall recorded in ...
- Jharsuguda ---- 2 mm (80 per cent deficient)
- Sundargarh ---- 6.4 mm (36 per cent deficient)
In the month of July (till date), with a total rainfall of 191 mm in Odisha, the monthly rainfall as of date is still 23 per cent less than the normal rainfall of 249.5mm. And the cumulative rainfall from June 1 to date is 330.6mm, which is 26 per cent less than the normal rainfall of 445mm.
Among the big states, only Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Kerala are the states that have received deficient rainfall this monsoon (as of July 23).