Monsoon onset over Kerala around June 4; no cyclone probability in the Arabian sea for next week

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in on Kerala around June 4. As per the IMD, there is no possibility of the arrival of monsoon before June 1.

“Once the monsoon gets strong, it is likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4, 2023,” said IMD in its updated long-range forecast outlook for the 2023 Southwest monsoon Season (June - September) rainfall and monthly rainfall and temperature for June 2023.

The IMD further informed that there is no cyclone probability in the Arabian Sea for next week. “If rainfall distribution is almost similar everywhere, then it will be an ideal situation. There won't be any problem. If we get equal distribution everywhere, there won't be much impact on agriculture. In northwest India, as of now, below-normal rainfall will be there,” tweeted ANI quoting IMD.

As per the IMD, below-normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except in some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India, and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above-normal rainfall is expected in June.

However, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%, said the IMD.