Himalayan jaunt of monsoon to start in the next 72 hours. Odisha will stare at dry weather in the coming 144 hours, though some districts are not immune to afternoon lightning and showers.
As per IMD, the monsoon trough is likely to shift close to the foothills of the Himalayas by August 10, though the northward tilt has already started. When such a condition develops, except in states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and north-eastern states, dry weather will prevail in the rest of the regions in the country, including Odisha.
The monsoon trough today is passing through Digha (West Bengal) and extending up to the southeast Bay of Bengal.
In consequent to the likely change in the weather pattern, dry weather will prevail in Odisha till August 12. However, the districts like Jagatsinghpur, Khordha, Puri, Cuttack, Sambalpur, Sundargarh, Deogarh Mayurbhanj, Ganjam etc are predicted to record showers accompanied by lightning between 11 am to 11 pm.
Lead weather forecasting agencies like NCEP-GFS, ECMWF and IITM predict the formation of a low pressure area in southwest Bay of Bengal, close to south Andhra Pradesh on and around Aug 14 -17. The weather system is supposed to cross Andhra Pradesh coasts between Machilipatnam and Guntur. The system is predicted to bring heavy rains in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra.
However, Odisha is unlikely to reap any significant rainfall dividend from the predicted weather system. The State is predicted to record rains on the 75th Independence day on August 15, especially in the south interior districts and districts bordering Chhattisgarh (due to a low pressure region over the Chhattisgarh).
Will Rain Return To Odisha?
If the model forecasts are to be looked into, then Odisha is going to record above-normal rainfall from August 20 to September 1. As per the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) forecast, the State is going to record rainfall in excess of 20 per cent over the normal rainfall in August last week in the State.
A detailed glance at the forecast shows that districts in the south interior Odisha like Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, south coastal regions like Ganjam, Gajapati and almost all the districts in western Odisha are predicted to receive excess rainfall during the week of August 19 - 25.
The forecast adds that rainfall intensity in the last week of August (Aug 26-Sept1) will drop a bit. In this week, the districts like Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Puri, Khordha, Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada, Kandhamal etc will record above normal rainfall.
The IMD monsoon report puts Odisha, along with Gujarat, Kerala and north-eastern states, in the rain deficient regions during the current monsoon season (Jun 1 - Aug 7). In contrast to the normal observed rainfall of 654.6mm rainfall, the State has received 27 per cent less or only 475.5mm. A majority of 23 districts have recorded deficient rainfall this monsoon. Not a single district has recorded excess cumulative rainfall between Jun1 - Aug 7.
In August first week, only the Nuapada district has recorded excess rainfall. A high of around 11 districts like Gajapati, Ganjam, Nayagarh, Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak, Kendrapada, Jajpur, Dhenkanal etc has witnessed highly deficient rainfall in the range of 60 - 80 per cent. Another 12 districts in south and western Odisha have recorded deficient rainfall. Normal rainfall is measured in Sundargarh, Mayurbhanj, Balasore and Rayagada.