Monsoon Defies IMD Prediction: Odisha records 17% Less Rainfall In June

The predictions of above normal rainfall in Odisha in June has gone haywire. The State has wrapped up the month with a deficient rainfall of around 17 per cent, though as per IMD parlance, a deficit rain of around 19 per cent is considered normal. 

Along with IMD, another weather agency of repute APEC Climate Centre has predicted above normal rainfall in the State in the month of June. But the actual rainfall during the month has turned the forecasts turtle.

Only 4 districts have recorded excess rainfall, whereas two districts have witnessed normal rainfall. A high of 24 districts have recorded deficient rainfall in June. While Bhadrak, the districts that is topping the table in weekly Covid test positive rate, tops the tally with a deficit of 52 per cent rainfall, most populous Ganjam district followed closely with a deficient rainfall of around 51 per cent.

No Monsoon Silver Lining!

No rain luck for majority of the south coastal Odisha. As per IMD Bhubaneswar categorisation, the districts of Nayagarh, Khordha, Puri, Ganjam and Gajapati belong to south coastal Odisha. Except Puri and Khordha, where the rainfall have been in excess of 46 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, the rest of districts have landed into deficit zone. When the highest deficient rainfall of 51 per cent has been measured in Ganjam, the deficit amount in Gajapati is 46 per cent and Nayagarh (28 per cent).

As many as five districts in south interior Odisha have also recorded deficient rainfall in the range of 39-26 per cent. Balangir recorded a deficient rainfall of 39 per cent, whereas Rayagada measured a deficit of 26 per cent. The other districts are: Boudh (38%) Kandhamal (37%), Nuapada (29%), Kalahandi (28%) and Rayagada (26%). Only Nuapada district has received normal rainfall.

In northern interior Odisha, three major districts recorded deficient rainfall. They are Keonjhar (40%), Mayurbhanj (34%) and Angul (30%). In contrast, except Sundargarh which has recorded normal rainfall in June, the other districts like Sambalpur, Deogarh, Bargarh, Jharsuguda and Dhenkanal have received deficient rainfall in the range of (-) 9 to (-) 1 per cent.

In North coastal districts, when Bhadrak and Jajpur have recorded a deficient rainfall of 52 and 38 per cent, respectively, the districts like Balasore has recorded a deficit of -14%. But districts like Cuttack posted an above normal rainfall of 23 per cent, and it's 29 per cent more than actual in Kendrapada. Khordha district has recorded normal rainfall (only 1 per cent more than actual).

(See the Pattern below) 

Monsoon defies IMD Prediction

Monsoon Dreams In July 

As per model forecasts, the State is unlikely to witness any significant rainfall till July 3. Rainfall activities will pick momentum, especially in coastal Odisha, due to activation of a monsoon trough on and around July 4. However, predictions show widespread rainfall across the State on July 7 and 8. 

There has been no forecast of any significant rainfall across the State after June 10. A glance at the IITM-IMD-ERPAS Rainfall Anomaly Forecast shows that Odisha is predicted to record a deficit rainfall in the week of July 8-14.     

However, on and around July 13, a low pressure area will form in south-central Bay of Bengal, near Andhra Pradesh coast. While the low pressure area is predicted to trigger heavy rainfall in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh till July 15-16, Odisha is unlikely to record any quantum rainfall from the weather system till July 14.

On July 14, the districts in south interior Odisha will be going to witness a good rainfall owing to the weather system, whereas rest of the districts are predicted to receive rainfall on July 15.

In the third week of July (15-21), rainfall in the north interior and some north coastal districts will slip into the deficit zone, the IITM-IMD model forecast suggests.

The bottom line: A look at the week-wise forecast shows the month of July may not witness above normal rainfall in Odisha. Time for the State government to keep a drought mitigation plan ready, if the deficient districts in the State will not be receiving above normal rainfall in July.